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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Murray, Christopher J L; Callender, Charlton S K H; Kulikoff, Xie Rachel; Srinivasan, Vinay; Abate, Degu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abay, Solomon M; Abbasi, Nooshin; Abbastabar, Hedayat; Abdela, Jemal; Abdelalim, Ahmed; Abdel-Rahman, Omar; Abdi, Alireza; Abdoli, Nasrin; Abdollahpour, Ibrahim; Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi; Abebe, Haftom Temesgen; Abebe, Molla; Abebe, Zegeye; Abebo, Teshome Abuka; Abejie, Ayenew Negesse; Aboyans, Victor; Abraha, Haftom Niguse; Abreu, Daisy Maria Xavier; Abrham, Aklilu Roba; Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E; Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou; Acharya, Pawan; Adamu, Abdu A; Adebayo, Oladimeji M; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi; Adekanmbi, Victor; Adetokunboh, Olatunji O; Adhena, Beyene Meressa; Adhikari, Tara Ballav; Adib, Mina G; Adou, Arsène Kouablan; Adsuar, Jose C; Afarideh, Mohsen; Afshin, Ashkan; Agarwal, Gina; Agesa, Kareha M; Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi; Agrawal, Sutapa; Ahmadi, Alireza; Ahmadi, Mehdi; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir; Ahmed, Sayem; Aichour, Amani Nidhal; Aichour, Ibtihel; Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine; Akanda, Ali S; Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil; Akibu, Mohammed; Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola; Akinyemiju, Tomi; Akseer, Nadia; Alahdab, Fares; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alebel, Animut; Aleman, Alicia V; Alene, Kefyalew Addis; Al-Eyadhy, Ayman; Ali, Raghib; Alijanzadeh, Mehran; Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza; Aljunid, Syed Mohamed; Alkerwi, Ala'a; Alla, François; Allebeck, Peter; Almasi, Ali; Alonso, Jordi; Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M; Alsharif, Ubai; Altirkawi, Khalid; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amare, Azmeraw T; Ammar, Walid; Anber, Nahla Hamed; Andrei, Catalina Liliana; Androudi, Sofia; Animut, Megbaru Debalkie; Ansari, Hossein; Ansha, Mustafa Geleto; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw; Aremu, Olatunde; Areri, Habtamu Abera; Arian, Nicholas; Ärnlöv, Johan; Artaman, Al; Aryal, Krishna K; Asayesh, Hamid; Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay; Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal; Assadi, Reza; Atey, Tesfay Mehari Mehari; Atique, Suleman; Atteraya, Madhu Sudhan; Ausloos, Marcel; Avokpaho, Euripide F G A; Awasthi, Ashish; Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina; Ayele, Yohanes; Ayer, Rakesh; Ayuk, Tambe B; Azzopardi, Peter S; Babalola, Tesleem Kayode; Babazadeh, Arefeh; Badali, Hamid; Badawi, Alaa; Bali, Ayele Geleto; Banach, Maciej; Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn; Bärnighausen, Till Winfried; Barrero, Lope H; Basaleem, Huda; Bassat, Quique; Basu, Arindam; Baune, Bernhard T; Baynes, Habtamu Wondifraw; Beghi, Ettore; Behzadifar, Masoud; Behzadifar, Meysam; Bekele, Bayu Begashaw; Belachew, Abate Bekele; Belay, Aregawi Gebreyesus; Belay, Ezra; Belay, Saba Abraham; Belay, Yihalem Abebe; Bell, Michelle L; Bello, Aminu K; Bennett, Derrick A; Bensenor, Isabela M; Bergeron, Gilles; Berhane, Adugnaw; Berman, Adam E; Bernabe, Eduardo; Bernstein, Robert S; Bertolacci, Gregory J; Beuran, Mircea; Bhattarai, Suraj; Bhaumik, Soumyadeep; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Biadgo, Belete; Bijani, Ali; Bikbov, Boris; Bililign, Nigus; Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat; Birlik, Sait Mentes; Birungi, Charles; Biswas, Tuhin; Bizuneh, Hailemichael; Bleyer, Archie; Basara, Berrak Bora; Bosetti, Cristina; Boufous, Soufiane; Brady, Oliver J; Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi; Brainin, Michael; Brazinova, Alexandra; Breitborde, Nicholas J K; Brenner, Hermann; Brewer, Jerry D; Briant, Paul Svitil; Britton, Gabrielle; Burstein, Roy; Busse, Reinhard; Butt, Zahid A; Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero; Campos-Nonato, Ismael R; Campuzano Rincon, Julio Cesar; Cano, Jorge; Car, Mate; Cárdenas, Rosario; Carrero, Juan J; Carvalho, Félix; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A; Castillo Rivas, Jacqueline; Castro, Franz; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Çavlin, Alanur; Cerin, Ester; Chalek, Julian; Chang, Hsing-Yi; Chang, Jung-Chen; Chattopadhyay, Aparajita; Chaturvedi, Pankaj; Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia; Chin, Ken Lee; Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe; Chitheer, Abdulaal; Choi, Jee-Young J; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Christopher, Devasahayam J; Cicuttini, Flavia M; Ciobanu, Liliana G; Cirillo, Massimo; Claro, Rafael M; Collado-Mateo, Daniel; Constantin, Maria-Magdalena; Conti, Sara; Cooper, Cyrus; Cooper, Leslie Trumbull; Cornaby, Leslie; Cortesi, Paolo Angelo; Cortinovis, Monica; Costa, Megan; Cromwell, Elizabeth; Crowe, Christopher Stephen; Cukelj, Petra; Cunningham, Matthew; Daba, Alemneh Kabeta; Dachew, Berihun Assefa; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Dargan, Paul I; Daryani, Ahmad; Das Gupta, Rajat; Das Neves, José; Dasa, Tamirat Tesfaye; Dash, Aditya Prasad; Weaver, Nicole Davis; Davitoiu, Dragos Virgil; Davletov, Kairat; De Leo, Diego; De Neve, Jan-Walter; Degefa, Meaza Girma; Degenhardt, Louisa; Degfie, Tizta Tilahun; Deiparine, Selina; Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam; Demtsu, Balem; Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar; Deribe, Kebede; Dervenis, Nikolaos; Des Jarlais, Don C; Dessie, Getenet Ayalew; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Dhimal, Meghnath; Dicker, Daniel; Ding, Eric L; Dinsa, Girmaye Deye; Djalalinia, Shirin; Do, Huyen Phuc; Dokova, Klara; Doku, David Teye; Dolan, Kate A; Doyle, Kerrie E; Driscoll, Tim R; Dubey, Manisha; Dubljanin, Eleonora; Duken, Eyasu Ejeta; Duraes, Andre R; Ebrahimpour, Soheil; Edvardsson, David; El Bcheraoui, Charbel; El-Khatib, Ziad; Elyazar, Iqbal Rf; Enayati, Ahmadali; Endries, Aman Yesuf; Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich; Eshrati, Babak; Eskandarieh, Sharareh; Esmaeili, Reza; Esteghamati, Alireza; Esteghamati, Sadaf; Estep, Kara; Fakhim, Hamed; Farag, Tamer; Faramarzi, Mahbobeh; Fareed, Mohammad; Farinha, Carla Sofia E Sá; Faro, Andre; Farvid, Maryam S; Farzadfar, Farshad; Farzaei, Mohammad Hosein; Fay, Kairsten A; Fazeli, Mir Sohail; Feigin, Valery L; Feigl, Andrea B; Feizy, Fariba; Fenny, Ama P; Fentahun, Netsanet; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Fernandes, Eduarda; Feyissa, Garumma Tolu; Filip, Irina; Finegold, Samuel; Fischer, Florian; Flor, Luisa Sorio; Foigt, Nataliya A; Foreman, Kyle J; Fornari, Carla; Fürst, Thomas; Fukumoto, Takeshi; Fuller, John E; Fullman, Nancy; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Gallus, Silvano; Gamkrelidze, Amiran; Ganji, Morsaleh; Gankpe, Fortune Gbetoho; Garcia, Gregory M; Garcia-Gordillo, Miguel Á; Gebre, Abadi Kahsu; Gebre, Teshome; Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe; Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde; Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay; Gelano, Tilayie Feto; Gelaw, Yalemzewod Assefa; Geleijnse, Johanna M; Genova-Maleras, Ricard; Gething, Peter; Gezae, Kebede Embaye; Ghadami, Mohammad Rasoul; Ghadimi, Reza; Ghadiri, Keyghobad; Ghasemi Falavarjani, Khalil; Ghasemi-Kasman, Maryam; Ghiasvand, Hesam; Ghimire, Mamata; Ghoshal, Aloke Gopal; Gill, Paramjit Singh; Gill, Tiffany K; Giussani, Giorgia; Gnedovskaya, Elena V; Goli, Srinivas; Gomez, Ricardo Santiago; Gómez-Dantés, Hector; Gona, Philimon N; Goodridge, Amador; Gopalani, Sameer Vali; Goulart, Alessandra C; Goulart, Bárbara Niegia Garcia; Grada, Ayman; Grosso, Giuseppe; Gugnani, Harish Chander C; Guo, Jingwen; Guo, Yuming; Gupta, Prakash C; Gupta, Rahul; Gupta, Rajeev; Gupta, Tanush; Haagsma, Juanita A; Hachinski, Vladimir; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Hagos, Tekleberhan B; Hailegiyorgis, Tewodros Tesfa; Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa; Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin; Haj-Mirzaian, Arya; Hamadeh, Randah R; Hamidi, Samer; Handal, Alexis J; Hankey, Graeme J; Hao, Yuantao; Harb, Hilda L; Haririan, Hamidreza; Haro, Josep Maria; Hasan, Mehedi; Hassankhani, Hadi; Hassen, Hamid Yimam; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hay, Simon I; He, Yihua; Hedayatizadeh-Omran, Akbar; Hegazy, Mohamed I; Heibati, Behzad; Heidari, Behnam; Hendrie, Delia; Henok, Andualem; Henry, Nathaniel J; Herteliu, Claudiu; Heydarpour, Fatemeh; Hibstu, Desalegn T; Hole, Michael K; Homaie Rad, Enayatollah; Hoogar, Praveen; Hosgood, H Dean; Hosseini, Seyed Mostafa; Hosseini Chavoshi, Meimanat M; Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi; Hostiuc, Mihaela; Hostiuc, Sorin; Hsairi, Mohamed; Hsiao, Thomas; Hu, Guoqing; Huang, John J; Iburg, Kim Moesgaard; Igumbor, Ehimario U; Ikeda, Chad Thomas; Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen; Iqbal, Usman; Irenso, Asnake Ararsa; Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi; Isehunwa, Oluwaseyi Oluwakemi; Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful; Jahangiry, Leila; Jahanmehr, Nader; Jain, Sudhir Kumar; Jakovljevic, Mihajlo; Jalu, Moti Tolera; James, Spencer L; Jassal, Simerjot K; Javanbakht, Mehdi; Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Jha, Ravi Prakash; Jha, Vivekanand; Ji, John S; Jonas, Jost B; Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy; Jungari, Suresh Banayya; Jürisson, Mikk; Kabir, Zubair; Kadel, Rajendra; Kahsay, Amaha; Kalani, Rizwan; Kapil, Umesh; Karami, Manoochehr; Matin, Behzad Karami; Karch, André; Karema, Corine; Karimi, Seyed M; Kasaeian, Amir; Kassa, Dessalegn H; Kassa, Getachew Mullu; Kassa, Tesfaye Dessale; Kassa, Zemenu Yohannes; Kassebaum, Nicholas J; Kastor, Anshul; Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal; Kaul, Anil; Kawakami, Norito; Karyani, Ali Kazemi; Kebede, Seifu; Keiyoro, Peter Njenga; Kemp, Grant Rodgers; Kengne, Andre Pascal; Keren, Andre; Kereselidze, Maia; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif; Khajavi, Alireza; Khalid, Nauman; Khalil, Ibrahim A; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad; Khan, Muhammad Shahzeb; Khang, Young-Ho; Khanna, Tripti; Khater, Mona M; Khatony, Alireza; Khazaeipour, Zahra; Khazaie, Habibolah; Khoja, Abdullah T; Khosravi, Ardeshir; Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein; Kibret, Getiye D; Kidanemariam, Zelalem Teklemariam; Kiirithio, Daniel N; Kilgore, Paul Evan; Kim, Daniel; Kim, Jun Y; Kim, Young-Eun; Kim, Yun Jin; Kimokoti, Ruth W; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kinra, Sanjay; Kisa, Adnan; Kivimäki, Mika; Kochhar, Sonali; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kolola, Tufa; Kopec, Jacek A; Kosek, Margaret N; Kosen, Soewarta; Koul, Parvaiz A; Koyanagi, Ai; Krishan, Kewal; Krishnaswami, Sanjay; Krohn, Kristopher J; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate; Bicer, Burcu Kucuk; Kumar, G Anil; Kumar, Manasi; Kumar, Pushpendra; Kumsa, Fekede Asefa; Kutz, Michael J; Lad, Sheetal D; Lafranconi, Alessandra; Lal, Dharmesh Kumar; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lam, Hilton; Lami, Faris Hasan; Lang, Justin J; Lanksy, Sonia; Lansingh, Van C; Laryea, Dennis Odai; Lassi, Zohra S; Latifi, Arman; Laxmaiah, Avula; Lazarus, Jeffrey V; Lee, James B; Lee, Paul H; Leigh, James; Leshargie, Cheru Tesema; Leta, Samson; Levi, Miriam; Li, Shanshan; Li, Xiaohong; Li, Yichong; Liang, Juan; Liang, Xiaofeng; Liben, Misgan Legesse; Lim, Lee-Ling; Limenih, Miteku Andualem; Linn, Shai; Liu, Shiwei; Lorkowski, Stefan; Lotufo, Paulo A; Lozano, Rafael; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Mabika, Crispin Mabika; Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King; Mackay, Mark T; Madotto, Fabiana; Mahmood, Tarek Abd Elaziz; Mahotra, Narayan Bahadur; Majdan, Marek; Majdzadeh, Reza; Majeed, Azeem; Malekzadeh, Reza; Malik, Manzoor Ahmad; Mamun, Abdullah A; Manamo, Wondimu Ayele; Manda, Ana-Laura; Mangalam, Srikanth; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Mantovani, Lorenzo Giovanni; Mapoma, Chabila Christopher; Marami, Dadi; Maravilla, Joemer C; Marcenes, Wagner; Marina, Shakhnazarova; Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; März, Winfried; Marzan, Melvin B; Mashamba-Thompson, Tivani Phosa; Masiye, Felix; Mason-Jones, Amanda J; Massenburg, Benjamin Ballard; Mathur, Manu Raj; Maulik, Pallab K; Mazidi, Mohsen; McGrath, John J; Mehata, Suresh; Mehendale, Sanjay Madhav; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Mehrotra, Ravi; Mehrzadi, Saeed; Mehta, Kala M; Mehta, Varshil; Mekonnen, Tefera C; Meles, Hagazi Gebre; Meles, Kidanu Gebremariam; Melese, Addisu; Melku, Mulugeta; Memiah, Peter T N; Memish, Ziad A; Mendoza, Walter; Mengesha, Melkamu Merid; Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese; Mengistu, Getnet; Mensah, George A; Mereta, Seid Tiku; Meretoja, Atte; Meretoja, Tuomo J; Mestrovic, Tomislav; Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane; Miangotar, Yode; Miazgowski, Bartosz; Miazgowski, Tomasz; Miller, Ted R; Miller-Petrie, Molly Katherine; Mini, G K; Mirabi, Parvaneh; Mirica, Andreea; Mirrakhimov, Erkin M; Misganaw, Awoke Temesgen; Moazen, Babak; Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin; Mohammadi, Moslem; Mohammadifard, Noushin; Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani, Maryam; Mohammed, Mohammed A; Mohammed, Shafiu; Mokdad, Ali H; Mola, Glen Dl; Molokhia, Mariam; Monasta, Lorenzo; Montañez, Julio Cesar; Moradi, Ghobad; Moradi, Mahmoudreza; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Moradinazar, Mehdi; Moraga, Paula; Morgado-Da-Costa, Joana; Mori, Rintaro; Morrison, Shane Douglas; Mosapour, Abbas; Moschos, Marilita M; Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam; Muche, Achenef Asmamaw; Muchie, Kindie Fentahun; Mueller, Ulrich Otto; Mukhopadhyay, Satinath; Muller, Kate; Murphy, Tasha B; Murthy, G V S; Musa, Jonah; Musa, Kamarul Imran; Mustafa, Ghulam; Muthupandian, Saravanan; Nachega, Jean B; Nagel, Gabriele; Naghavi, Mohsen; Naheed, Aliya; Nahvijou, Azin; Naik, Gurudatta; Naik, Paulami; Najafi, Farid; Naldi, Luigi; Nangia, Vinay; Nansseu, Jobert Richie; Nascimento, Bruno Ramos; Nawaz, Haseeb; Ncama, Busisiwe P; Neamati, Nahid; Negoi, Ionut; Negoi, Ruxandra Irina; Neupane, Subas; Newton, Charles Richard James; Ngalesoni, Frida N; Ngunjiri, Josephine W; Nguyen, Grant; Nguyen, Long Hoang; Nguyen, Trang Huyen; Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini; Nirayo, Yirga Legesse; Nisar, Muhammad Imran; Nixon, Molly R; Nomura, Shuhei; Noroozi, Mehdi; Noubiap, Jean Jacques; Nouri, Hamid Reza; Shiadeh, Malihe Nourollahpour; Nowroozi, Mohammad Reza; Nyandwi, Alypio; Nyasulu, Peter S; Odell, Christopher M; Ofori-Asenso, Richard; Ogah, Okechukwu Samuel; Ogbo, Felix Akpojene; Oh, In-Hwan; Okoro, Anselm; Oladimeji, Olanrewaju; Olagunju, Andrew T; Olagunju, Tinuke O; Olivares, Pedro R; Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola; Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun; Ong, Sok King; Ortiz, Alberto; Osgood-Zimmerman, Aaron; Ota, Erika; Otieno, Brenda Achieng; Otstavnov, Stanislav S; Owolabi, Mayowa Ojo; Oyekale, Abayomi Samuel; P A, Mahesh; Pakhale, Smita; Pakhare, Abhijit P; Pana, Adrian; Panda, Basant Kumar; Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra; Pandey, Achyut Raj; Park, Eun-Kee; Parsian, Hadi; Patel, Shanti; Patil, Snehal T; Patle, Ajay; Patton, George C; Paturi, Vishnupriya Rao; Paudel, Deepak; Pedroso, Marcel Moraes; Peprah, Emmanuel K; Pereira, David M; Perico, Norberto; Pesudovs, Konrad; Petri, William A; Petzold, Max; Pierce, Maxwell; Pigott, David M; Pillay, Julian David; Pirsaheb, Meghdad; Polanczyk, Guilherme V; Postma, Maarten J; Pourmalek, Farshad; Pourshams, Akram; Poustchi, Hossein; Prakash, Swayam; Prasad, Narayan; Purcell, Caroline A; Purwar, Manorama B; Qorbani, Mostafa; Quansah, Reginald; Radfar, Amir; Rafay, Anwar; Rafiei, Alireza; Rahim, Fakher; Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Mahfuzar; Rahman, Md Shafiur; Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur; Rahman, Muhammad Aziz; Rahman, Sajjad Ur; Rai, Rajesh Kumar; Rajati, Fatemeh; Rajsic, Sasa; Ram, Usha; Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal; Ranjan, Prabhat; Rawaf, David Laith; Rawaf, Salman; Ray, Sarah E; Razo-García, Christian; Reiner, Robert C; Reis, Cesar; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Renzaho, Andre M N; Resnikoff, Serge; Rezaei, Satar; Rezaeian, Shahab; Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh; Riahi, Seyed Mohammad; Rios-Blancas, Maria Jesus; Roba, Kedir Teji; Roberts, Nicholas L S; Roever, Leonardo; Ronfani, Luca; Roshandel, Gholamreza; Rostami, Ali; Rubagotti, Enrico; Ruhago, George Mugambage; Sabde, Yogesh Damodar; Sachdev, Perminder S; Saddik, Basema; Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar; Safari, Hosein; Safari, Yahya; Safari-Faramani, Roya; Safdarian, Mahdi; Safi, Sare; Safiri, Saeid; Sagar, Rajesh; Sahebkar, Amirhossein; Sahraian, Mohammad Ali; Sajadi, Haniye Sadat; Salahshoor, Mohamadreza; Salam, Nasir; Salama, Joseph S; Salamati, Payman; Saldanha, Raphael De Freitas; Saleem, Zikria; Salimi, Yahya; Salimzadeh, Hamideh; Salomon, Joshua A; Salvi, Sundeep Santosh; Salz, Inbal; Sambala, Evanson Zondani; Samy, Abdallah M; Sanabria, Juan; Sanchez-Niño, Maria Dolores; Santos, Itamar S; Santric Milicevic, Milena M; Sao Jose, Bruno Piassi; Sardana, Mayank; Sarker, Abdur Razzaque; Sarmiento-Suárez, Rodrigo; Saroshe, Satish; Sarrafzadegan, Nizal; Sartorius, Benn; Sarvi, Shahabeddin; Sathian, Brijesh; Satpathy, Maheswar; Sawant, Arundhati R; Sawhney, Monika; Saxena, Sonia; Schaeffner, Elke; Schelonka, Kathryn; Schneider, Ione J C; Schwebel, David C; Schwendicke, Falk; Seedat, Soraya; Sekerija, Mario; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Serván-Mori, Edson; Shabaninejad, Hosein; Shackelford, Katya Anne; Shafieesabet, Azadeh; Shaheen, Amira A; Shaikh, Masood Ali; Shakir, Raad A; Shams-Beyranvand, Mehran; Shamsi, Mohammadbagher; Shamsizadeh, Morteza; Sharafi, Heidar; Sharafi, Kiomars; Sharif, Mehdi; Sharif-Alhoseini, Mahdi; Sharma, Jayendra; Sharma, Rajesh; She, Jun; Sheikh, Aziz; Shi, Peilin; Shibuya, Kenji; Shigematsu, Mika; Shiri, Rahman; Shirkoohi, Reza; Shiue, Ivy; Shokraneh, Farhad; Shukla, Sharvari Rahul; Si, Si; Siabani, Soraya; Sibai, Abla Mehio; Siddiqi, Tariq J; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora; Sigurvinsdottir, Rannveig; Silpakit, Naris; Silva, Diego Augusto Santos; Silva, João Pedro; Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves; Singam, Narayana Sarma Venkata; Singh, Jasvinder A; Singh, Narinder Pal; Singh, Virendra; Sinha, Dhirendra Narain; Sliwa, Karen; Soares Filho, Adauto Martins; Sobaih, Badr Hasan; Sobhani, Soheila; Soofi, Moslem; Soriano, Joan B; Soyiri, Ireneous N; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T; Starodubov, Vladimir I; Steiner, Caitlyn; Stewart, Leo G; Stokes, Mark A; Strong, Mark; Subart, Michelle L; Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale; Sulo, Gerhard; Sunguya, Bruno F; Sur, Patrick John; Sutradhar, Ipsita; Sykes, Bryan L; Sylaja, P N; Sylte, Dillon O; Szoeke, Cassandra E I; Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael; Tabb, Karen M; Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar; Tandon, Nikhil; Tassew, Aberash Abay; Tassew, Segen Gebremeskel; Taveira, Nuno; Tawye, Nega Yimer; Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash; Tekalign, Tigist Gashaw; Tekle, Merhawi Gebremedhin; Temsah, Mohamad-Hani; Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman; Teshale, Manaye Yihune; Tessema, Belay; Teweldemedhin, Mebrahtu; Thakur, Jarnail Singh; Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman; Thirunavukkarasu, Sathish; Thomas, Nihal; Thomson, Alan J; Tilahun, Binyam; To, Quyen G; Tonelli, Marcello; Topor-Madry, Roman; Torre, Anna E; Tortajada-Girbés, Miguel; Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto; Toyoshima, Hideaki; Tran, Bach Xuan; Tran, Khanh Bao; Tripathy, Srikanth Prasad; Truelsen, Thomas Clement; Truong, Nu Thi; Tsadik, Afewerki Gebremeskel; Tsegay, Amanuel; Tsilimparis, Nikolaos; Tudor Car, Lorainne; Ukwaja, Kingsley N; Ullah, Irfan; Usman, Muhammad Shariq; Uthman, Olalekan A; Uzun, Selen Begüm; Vaduganathan, Muthiah; Vaezi, Afsane; Vaidya, Gaurang; Valdez, Pascual R; Varavikova, Elena; Varughese, Santosh; Vasankari, Tommi Juhani; Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales; Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy; Villafaina, Santos; Violante, Francesco S; Vladimirov, Sergey Konstantinovitch; Vlassov, Vasily; Vollset, Stein Emil; Vos, Theo; Vosoughi, Kia; Vujcic, Isidora S; Wagnew, Fasil Shiferaw; Waheed, Yasir; Walson, Judd L; Wang, Yanping; Wang, Yuan-Pang; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G; Weldegwergs, Kidu Gidey; Werdecker, Andrea; Westerman, Ronny; Whiteford, Harvey; Widecka, Justyna; Widecka, Katarzyna; Wijeratne, Tissa; Winkler, Andrea Sylvia; Wiysonge, Charles Shey; Wolfe, Charles D A; Wu, Shouling; Wyper, Grant M A; Xu, Gelin; Yamada, Tomohide; Yano, Yuichiro; Yaseri, Mehdi; Yasin, Yasin Jemal; Ye, Pengpeng; Yentür, Gökalp Kadri; Yeshaneh, Alex; Yimer, Ebrahim M; Yip, Paul; Yisma, Engida; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Yotebieng, Marcel; Younis, Mustafa Z; Yousefifard, Mahmoud; Yu, Chuanhua; Zadnik, Vesna; Zaidi, Zoubida; Zaman, Sojib Bin; Zamani, Mohammad; Zare, Zohreh; Zeleke, Mulugeta Molla; Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew; Zerfu, Taddese Alemu; Zhang, Xueying; Zhao, Xiu-Ju; Zhou, Maigeng; Zhu, Jun; Zimsen, Stephanie R M; Zodpey, Sanjay; Zoeckler, Leo; Lopez, Alan D; Lim, Stephen S

Authors

Christopher J L Murray

Charlton S K H Callender

Xie Rachel Kulikoff

Vinay Srinivasan

Degu Abate

Kalkidan Hassen Abate

Solomon M Abay

Nooshin Abbasi

Hedayat Abbastabar

Jemal Abdela

Ahmed Abdelalim

Omar Abdel-Rahman

Alireza Abdi

Nasrin Abdoli

Ibrahim Abdollahpour

Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader

Haftom Temesgen Abebe

Molla Abebe

Zegeye Abebe

Teshome Abuka Abebo

Ayenew Negesse Abejie

Victor Aboyans

Haftom Niguse Abraha

Daisy Maria Xavier Abreu

Aklilu Roba Abrham

Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad

Niveen M E Abu-Rmeileh

Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi

Pawan Acharya

Abdu A Adamu

Oladimeji M Adebayo

Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji

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Olatunji O Adetokunboh

Beyene Meressa Adhena

Tara Ballav Adhikari

Mina G Adib

Arsène Kouablan Adou

Jose C Adsuar

Mohsen Afarideh

Ashkan Afshin

Gina Agarwal

Kareha M Agesa

Sargis Aghasi Aghayan

Sutapa Agrawal

Alireza Ahmadi

Mehdi Ahmadi

Muktar Beshir Ahmed

Sayem Ahmed

Amani Nidhal Aichour

Ibtihel Aichour

Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour

Ali S Akanda

Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari

Mohammed Akibu

Rufus Olusola Akinyemi

Tomi Akinyemiju

Nadia Akseer

Fares Alahdab

Ziyad Al-Aly

Khurshid Alam

Animut Alebel

Alicia V Aleman

Kefyalew Addis Alene

Ayman Al-Eyadhy

Raghib Ali

Mehran Alijanzadeh

Reza Alizadeh-Navaei

Syed Mohamed Aljunid

Ala'a Alkerwi

François Alla

Peter Allebeck

Ali Almasi

Jordi Alonso

Rajaa M Al-Raddadi

Ubai Alsharif

Khalid Altirkawi

Nelson Alvis-Guzman

Azmeraw T Amare

Walid Ammar

Nahla Hamed Anber

Catalina Liliana Andrei

Sofia Androudi

Megbaru Debalkie Animut

Hossein Ansari

Mustafa Geleto Ansha

Carl Abelardo T Antonio

Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah

Olatunde Aremu

Habtamu Abera Areri

Nicholas Arian

Johan Ärnlöv

Al Artaman

Krishna K Aryal

Hamid Asayesh

Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw

Solomon Weldegebreal Asgedom

Reza Assadi

Tesfay Mehari Mehari Atey

Suleman Atique

Madhu Sudhan Atteraya

Marcel Ausloos

Euripide F G A Avokpaho

Ashish Awasthi

Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla

Yohanes Ayele

Rakesh Ayer

Tambe B Ayuk

Peter S Azzopardi

Tesleem Kayode Babalola

Arefeh Babazadeh

Hamid Badali

Alaa Badawi

Ayele Geleto Bali

Maciej Banach

Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo

Till Winfried Bärnighausen

Lope H Barrero

Huda Basaleem

Quique Bassat

Arindam Basu

Bernhard T Baune

Habtamu Wondifraw Baynes

Ettore Beghi

Masoud Behzadifar

Meysam Behzadifar

Bayu Begashaw Bekele

Abate Bekele Belachew

Aregawi Gebreyesus Belay

Ezra Belay

Saba Abraham Belay

Yihalem Abebe Belay

Michelle L Bell

Aminu K Bello

Derrick A Bennett

Isabela M Bensenor

Gilles Bergeron

Adugnaw Berhane

Adam E Berman

Eduardo Bernabe

Robert S Bernstein

Gregory J Bertolacci

Mircea Beuran

Suraj Bhattarai

Soumyadeep Bhaumik

Zulfiqar A Bhutta

Belete Biadgo

Ali Bijani

Boris Bikbov

Nigus Bililign

Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed

Sait Mentes Birlik

Charles Birungi

Tuhin Biswas

Hailemichael Bizuneh

Archie Bleyer

Berrak Bora Basara

Cristina Bosetti

Soufiane Boufous

Oliver J Brady

Nicola Luigi Bragazzi

Michael Brainin

Alexandra Brazinova

Nicholas J K Breitborde

Hermann Brenner

Jerry D Brewer

Paul Svitil Briant

Gabrielle Britton

Roy Burstein

Reinhard Busse

Zahid A Butt

Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado

Ismael R Campos-Nonato

Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon

Jorge Cano

Mate Car

Rosario Cárdenas

Juan J Carrero

Félix Carvalho

Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela

Jacqueline Castillo Rivas

Franz Castro

Ferrán Catalá-López

Alanur Çavlin

Ester Cerin

Julian Chalek

Hsing-Yi Chang

Jung-Chen Chang

Aparajita Chattopadhyay

Pankaj Chaturvedi

Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang

Ken Lee Chin

Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa

Abdulaal Chitheer

Jee-Young J Choi

Rajiv Chowdhury

Devasahayam J Christopher

Flavia M Cicuttini

Liliana G Ciobanu

Massimo Cirillo

Rafael M Claro

Daniel Collado-Mateo

Maria-Magdalena Constantin

Sara Conti

Cyrus Cooper

Leslie Trumbull Cooper

Leslie Cornaby

Paolo Angelo Cortesi

Monica Cortinovis

Megan Costa

Elizabeth Cromwell

Christopher Stephen Crowe

Petra Cukelj

Matthew Cunningham

Alemneh Kabeta Daba

Berihun Assefa Dachew

Lalit Dandona

Rakhi Dandona

Paul I Dargan

Ahmad Daryani

Rajat Das Gupta

José Das Neves

Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa

Aditya Prasad Dash

Nicole Davis Weaver

Dragos Virgil Davitoiu

Kairat Davletov

Diego De Leo

Jan-Walter De Neve

Meaza Girma Degefa

Louisa Degenhardt

Tizta Tilahun Degfie

Selina Deiparine

Gebre Teklemariam Demoz

Balem Demtsu

Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez

Kebede Deribe

Nikolaos Dervenis

Don C Des Jarlais

Getenet Ayalew Dessie

Samath D Dharmaratne

Meghnath Dhimal

Daniel Dicker

Eric L Ding

Girmaye Deye Dinsa

Shirin Djalalinia

Huyen Phuc Do

Klara Dokova

David Teye Doku

Kate A Dolan

Kerrie E Doyle

Tim R Driscoll

Manisha Dubey

Eleonora Dubljanin

Eyasu Ejeta Duken

Andre R Duraes

Soheil Ebrahimpour

David Edvardsson

Charbel El Bcheraoui

Ziad El-Khatib

Iqbal Rf Elyazar

Ahmadali Enayati

Aman Yesuf Endries

Sergey Petrovich Ermakov

Babak Eshrati

Sharareh Eskandarieh

Reza Esmaeili

Alireza Esteghamati

Sadaf Esteghamati

Kara Estep

Hamed Fakhim

Tamer Farag

Mahbobeh Faramarzi

Mohammad Fareed

Carla Sofia E Sá Farinha

Andre Faro

Maryam S Farvid

Farshad Farzadfar

Mohammad Hosein Farzaei

Kairsten A Fay

Mir Sohail Fazeli

Valery L Feigin

Andrea B Feigl

Fariba Feizy

Ama P Fenny

Netsanet Fentahun

Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad

Eduarda Fernandes

Garumma Tolu Feyissa

Irina Filip

Samuel Finegold

Florian Fischer

Luisa Sorio Flor

Nataliya A Foigt

Kyle J Foreman

Carla Fornari

Thomas Fürst

Takeshi Fukumoto

John E Fuller

Nancy Fullman

Emmanuela Gakidou

Silvano Gallus

Amiran Gamkrelidze

Morsaleh Ganji

Fortune Gbetoho Gankpe

Gregory M Garcia

Miguel Á Garcia-Gordillo

Abadi Kahsu Gebre

Teshome Gebre

Gebremedhin Berhe Gebregergs

Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot

Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin

Tilayie Feto Gelano

Yalemzewod Assefa Gelaw

Johanna M Geleijnse

Ricard Genova-Maleras

Peter Gething

Kebede Embaye Gezae

Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami

Reza Ghadimi

Keyghobad Ghadiri

Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani

Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman

Hesam Ghiasvand

Mamata Ghimire

Aloke Gopal Ghoshal

Paramjit Singh Gill

Tiffany K Gill

Giorgia Giussani

Elena V Gnedovskaya

Srinivas Goli

Ricardo Santiago Gomez

Hector Gómez-Dantés

Philimon N Gona

Amador Goodridge

Sameer Vali Gopalani

Alessandra C Goulart

Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart

Ayman Grada

Giuseppe Grosso

Harish Chander C Gugnani

Jingwen Guo

Yuming Guo

Prakash C Gupta

Rahul Gupta

Rajeev Gupta

Tanush Gupta

Juanita A Haagsma

Vladimir Hachinski

Nima Hafezi-Nejad

Tekleberhan B Hagos

Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis

Gessessew Bugssa Hailu

Arvin Haj-Mirzaian

Arya Haj-Mirzaian

Randah R Hamadeh

Samer Hamidi

Alexis J Handal

Graeme J Hankey

Yuantao Hao

Hilda L Harb

Hamidreza Haririan

Josep Maria Haro

Mehedi Hasan

Hadi Hassankhani

Hamid Yimam Hassen

Rasmus Havmoeller

Simon I Hay

Yihua He

Akbar Hedayatizadeh-Omran

Mohamed I Hegazy

Behzad Heibati

Behnam Heidari

Delia Hendrie

Andualem Henok

Nathaniel J Henry

Claudiu Herteliu

Fatemeh Heydarpour

Desalegn T Hibstu

Michael K Hole

Enayatollah Homaie Rad

Praveen Hoogar

H Dean Hosgood

Seyed Mostafa Hosseini

Meimanat M Hosseini Chavoshi

Mehdi Hosseinzadeh

Mihaela Hostiuc

Sorin Hostiuc

Mohamed Hsairi

Thomas Hsiao

Guoqing Hu

John J Huang

Kim Moesgaard Iburg

Ehimario U Igumbor

Chad Thomas Ikeda

Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi

Usman Iqbal

Asnake Ararsa Irenso

Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani

Oluwaseyi Oluwakemi Isehunwa

Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam

Leila Jahangiry

Nader Jahanmehr

Sudhir Kumar Jain

Mihajlo Jakovljevic

Moti Tolera Jalu

Spencer L James

Simerjot K Jassal

Mehdi Javanbakht

Achala Upendra Jayatilleke

Panniyammakal Jeemon

Ravi Prakash Jha

Vivekanand Jha

John S Ji

Jost B Jonas

Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak

Suresh Banayya Jungari

Mikk Jürisson

Zubair Kabir

Rajendra Kadel

Amaha Kahsay

Rizwan Kalani

Umesh Kapil

Manoochehr Karami

Behzad Karami Matin

André Karch

Corine Karema

Seyed M Karimi

Amir Kasaeian

Dessalegn H Kassa

Getachew Mullu Kassa

Tesfaye Dessale Kassa

Zemenu Yohannes Kassa

Nicholas J Kassebaum

Anshul Kastor

Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi

Anil Kaul

Norito Kawakami

Ali Kazemi Karyani

Seifu Kebede

Peter Njenga Keiyoro

Grant Rodgers Kemp

Andre Pascal Kengne

Andre Keren

Maia Kereselidze

Yousef Saleh Khader

Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie

Alireza Khajavi

Nauman Khalid

Ibrahim A Khalil

Ejaz Ahmad Khan

Muhammad Shahzeb Khan

Young-Ho Khang

Tripti Khanna

Mona M Khater

Alireza Khatony

Zahra Khazaeipour

Habibolah Khazaie

Abdullah T Khoja

Ardeshir Khosravi

Mohammad Hossein Khosravi

Getiye D Kibret

Zelalem Teklemariam Kidanemariam

Daniel N Kiirithio

Paul Evan Kilgore

Daniel Kim

Jun Y Kim

Young-Eun Kim

Yun Jin Kim

Ruth W Kimokoti

Yohannes Kinfu

Sanjay Kinra

Adnan Kisa

Mika Kivimäki

Sonali Kochhar

Yoshihiro Kokubo

Tufa Kolola

Jacek A Kopec

Margaret N Kosek

Soewarta Kosen

Parvaiz A Koul

Ai Koyanagi

Kewal Krishan

Sanjay Krishnaswami

Kristopher J Krohn

Barthelemy Kuate Defo

Burcu Kucuk Bicer

G Anil Kumar

Manasi Kumar

Pushpendra Kumar

Fekede Asefa Kumsa

Michael J Kutz

Sheetal D Lad

Alessandra Lafranconi

Dharmesh Kumar Lal

Ratilal Lalloo

Hilton Lam

Faris Hasan Lami

Justin J Lang

Sonia Lanksy

Van C Lansingh

Dennis Odai Laryea

Zohra S Lassi

Arman Latifi

Avula Laxmaiah

Jeffrey V Lazarus

James B Lee

Paul H Lee

James Leigh

Cheru Tesema Leshargie

Samson Leta

Miriam Levi

Shanshan Li

Xiaohong Li

Yichong Li

Juan Liang

Xiaofeng Liang

Misgan Legesse Liben

Lee-Ling Lim

Miteku Andualem Limenih

Shai Linn

Shiwei Liu

Stefan Lorkowski

Paulo A Lotufo

Rafael Lozano

Raimundas Lunevicius

Crispin Mabika Mabika

Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan

Mark T Mackay

Fabiana Madotto

Tarek Abd Elaziz Mahmood

Narayan Bahadur Mahotra

Marek Majdan

Reza Majdzadeh

Azeem Majeed

Reza Malekzadeh

Manzoor Ahmad Malik

Abdullah A Mamun

Wondimu Ayele Manamo

Ana-Laura Manda

Srikanth Mangalam

Mohammad Ali Mansournia

Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani

Chabila Christopher Mapoma

Dadi Marami

Joemer C Maravilla

Wagner Marcenes

Shakhnazarova Marina

Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo

Winfried März

Melvin B Marzan

Tivani Phosa Mashamba-Thompson

Felix Masiye

Amanda J Mason-Jones

Benjamin Ballard Massenburg

Manu Raj Mathur

Pallab K Maulik

Mohsen Mazidi

John J McGrath

Suresh Mehata

Sanjay Madhav Mehendale

Man Mohan Mehndiratta

Ravi Mehrotra

Saeed Mehrzadi

Kala M Mehta

Varshil Mehta

Tefera C Mekonnen

Hagazi Gebre Meles

Kidanu Gebremariam Meles

Addisu Melese

Mulugeta Melku

Peter T N Memiah

Ziad A Memish

Walter Mendoza

Melkamu Merid Mengesha

Desalegn Tadese Mengistu

Getnet Mengistu

George A Mensah

Seid Tiku Mereta

Atte Meretoja

Tuomo J Meretoja

Tomislav Mestrovic

Haftay Berhane Mezgebe

Yode Miangotar

Bartosz Miazgowski

Tomasz Miazgowski

Ted R Miller

Molly Katherine Miller-Petrie

G K Mini

Parvaneh Mirabi

Andreea Mirica

Erkin M Mirrakhimov

Awoke Temesgen Misganaw

Babak Moazen

Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad

Moslem Mohammadi

Noushin Mohammadifard

Maryam Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani

Mohammed A Mohammed

Shafiu Mohammed

Ali H Mokdad

Glen Dl Mola

Mariam Molokhia

Lorenzo Monasta

Julio Cesar Montañez

Ghobad Moradi

Mahmoudreza Moradi

Maziar Moradi-Lakeh

Mehdi Moradinazar

Paula Moraga

Joana Morgado-Da-Costa

Rintaro Mori

Shane Douglas Morrison

Abbas Mosapour

Marilita M Moschos

Seyyed Meysam Mousavi

Achenef Asmamaw Muche

Kindie Fentahun Muchie

Ulrich Otto Mueller

Satinath Mukhopadhyay

Kate Muller

Tasha B Murphy

G V S Murthy

Jonah Musa

Kamarul Imran Musa

Ghulam Mustafa

Saravanan Muthupandian

Jean B Nachega

Gabriele Nagel

Mohsen Naghavi

Aliya Naheed

Azin Nahvijou

Gurudatta Naik

Paulami Naik

Farid Najafi

Luigi Naldi

Vinay Nangia

Jobert Richie Nansseu

Bruno Ramos Nascimento

Haseeb Nawaz

Busisiwe P Ncama

Nahid Neamati

Ionut Negoi

Ruxandra Irina Negoi

Subas Neupane

Charles Richard James Newton

Frida N Ngalesoni

Josephine W Ngunjiri

Grant Nguyen

Long Hoang Nguyen

Trang Huyen Nguyen

Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum

Yirga Legesse Nirayo

Muhammad Imran Nisar

Molly R Nixon

Shuhei Nomura

Mehdi Noroozi

Jean Jacques Noubiap

Hamid Reza Nouri

Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh

Mohammad Reza Nowroozi

Alypio Nyandwi

Peter S Nyasulu

Christopher M Odell

Richard Ofori-Asenso

Okechukwu Samuel Ogah

Felix Akpojene Ogbo

In-Hwan Oh

Anselm Okoro

Olanrewaju Oladimeji

Andrew T Olagunju

Tinuke O Olagunju

Pedro R Olivares

Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya

Jacob Olusegun Olusanya

Sok King Ong

Alberto Ortiz

Aaron Osgood-Zimmerman

Erika Ota

Brenda Achieng Otieno

Stanislav S Otstavnov

Mayowa Ojo Owolabi

Abayomi Samuel Oyekale

Mahesh P A

Smita Pakhale

Abhijit P Pakhare

Adrian Pana

Basant Kumar Panda

Songhomitra Panda-Jonas

Achyut Raj Pandey

Eun-Kee Park

Hadi Parsian

Shanti Patel

Snehal T Patil

Ajay Patle

George C Patton

Vishnupriya Rao Paturi

Deepak Paudel

Marcel Moraes Pedroso

Emmanuel K Peprah

David M Pereira

Norberto Perico

Konrad Pesudovs

William A Petri

Max Petzold

Maxwell Pierce

David M Pigott

Julian David Pillay

Meghdad Pirsaheb

Guilherme V Polanczyk

Maarten J Postma

Farshad Pourmalek

Akram Pourshams

Hossein Poustchi

Swayam Prakash

Narayan Prasad

Caroline A Purcell

Manorama B Purwar

Mostafa Qorbani

Reginald Quansah

Amir Radfar

Anwar Rafay

Alireza Rafiei

Fakher Rahim

Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar

Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar

Mahfuzar Rahman

Md Shafiur Rahman

Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman

Muhammad Aziz Rahman

Sajjad Ur Rahman

Rajesh Kumar Rai

Fatemeh Rajati

Sasa Rajsic

Usha Ram

Chhabi Lal Ranabhat

Prabhat Ranjan

David Laith Rawaf

Salman Rawaf

Sarah E Ray

Christian Razo-García

Robert C Reiner

Cesar Reis

Giuseppe Remuzzi

Andre M N Renzaho

Serge Resnikoff

Satar Rezaei

Shahab Rezaeian

Mohammad Sadegh Rezai

Seyed Mohammad Riahi

Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas

Kedir Teji Roba

Nicholas L S Roberts

Leonardo Roever

Luca Ronfani

Gholamreza Roshandel

Ali Rostami

Enrico Rubagotti

George Mugambage Ruhago

Yogesh Damodar Sabde

Perminder S Sachdev

Basema Saddik

Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam

Hosein Safari

Yahya Safari

Roya Safari-Faramani

Mahdi Safdarian

Sare Safi

Saeid Safiri

Rajesh Sagar

Amirhossein Sahebkar

Mohammad Ali Sahraian

Haniye Sadat Sajadi

Mohamadreza Salahshoor

Nasir Salam

Joseph S Salama

Payman Salamati

Raphael De Freitas Saldanha

Zikria Saleem

Yahya Salimi

Hamideh Salimzadeh

Joshua A Salomon

Sundeep Santosh Salvi

Inbal Salz

Evanson Zondani Sambala

Abdallah M Samy

Juan Sanabria

Maria Dolores Sanchez-Niño

Itamar S Santos

Milena M Santric Milicevic

Bruno Piassi Sao Jose

Mayank Sardana

Abdur Razzaque Sarker

Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez

Satish Saroshe

Nizal Sarrafzadegan

Benn Sartorius

Shahabeddin Sarvi

Brijesh Sathian

Maheswar Satpathy

Arundhati R Sawant

Monika Sawhney

Sonia Saxena

Elke Schaeffner

Kathryn Schelonka

Ione J C Schneider

David C Schwebel

Falk Schwendicke

Soraya Seedat

Mario Sekerija

Sadaf G Sepanlou

Edson Serván-Mori

Hosein Shabaninejad

Katya Anne Shackelford

Azadeh Shafieesabet

Amira A Shaheen

Masood Ali Shaikh

Raad A Shakir

Mehran Shams-Beyranvand

Mohammadbagher Shamsi

Morteza Shamsizadeh

Heidar Sharafi

Kiomars Sharafi

Mehdi Sharif

Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini

Jayendra Sharma

Rajesh Sharma

Jun She

Aziz Sheikh

Peilin Shi

Kenji Shibuya

Mika Shigematsu

Rahman Shiri

Reza Shirkoohi

Ivy Shiue

Farhad Shokraneh

Sharvari Rahul Shukla

Si Si

Soraya Siabani

Abla Mehio Sibai

Tariq J Siddiqi

Inga Dora Sigfusdottir

Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir

Naris Silpakit

Diego Augusto Santos Silva

João Pedro Silva

Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira

Narayana Sarma Venkata Singam

Jasvinder A Singh

Narinder Pal Singh

Virendra Singh

Dhirendra Narain Sinha

Karen Sliwa

Adauto Martins Soares Filho

Badr Hasan Sobaih

Soheila Sobhani

Moslem Soofi

Joan B Soriano

Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy

Vladimir I Starodubov

Caitlyn Steiner

Leo G Stewart

Mark A Stokes

Mark Strong

Michelle L Subart

Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan

Gerhard Sulo

Bruno F Sunguya

Patrick John Sur

Ipsita Sutradhar

Bryan L Sykes

P N Sylaja

Dillon O Sylte

Cassandra E I Szoeke

Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos

Karen M Tabb

Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla

Nikhil Tandon

Aberash Abay Tassew

Segen Gebremeskel Tassew

Nuno Taveira

Nega Yimer Tawye

Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi

Tigist Gashaw Tekalign

Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle

Mohamad-Hani Temsah

Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi

Manaye Yihune Teshale

Belay Tessema

Mebrahtu Teweldemedhin

Jarnail Singh Thakur

Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan

Sathish Thirunavukkarasu

Nihal Thomas

Alan J Thomson

Binyam Tilahun

Quyen G To

Marcello Tonelli

Roman Topor-Madry

Anna E Torre

Miguel Tortajada-Girbés

Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone

Hideaki Toyoshima

Bach Xuan Tran

Khanh Bao Tran

Srikanth Prasad Tripathy

Thomas Clement Truelsen

Nu Thi Truong

Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik

Amanuel Tsegay

Nikolaos Tsilimparis

Lorainne Tudor Car

Kingsley N Ukwaja

Irfan Ullah

Muhammad Shariq Usman

Olalekan A Uthman

Selen Begüm Uzun

Muthiah Vaduganathan

Afsane Vaezi

Gaurang Vaidya

Pascual R Valdez

Elena Varavikova

Santosh Varughese

Tommi Juhani Vasankari

Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos

Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian

Santos Villafaina

Francesco S Violante

Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov

Vasily Vlassov

Stein Emil Vollset

Theo Vos

Kia Vosoughi

Isidora S Vujcic

Fasil Shiferaw Wagnew

Yasir Waheed

Judd L Walson

Yanping Wang

Yuan-Pang Wang

Elisabete Weiderpass

Robert G Weintraub

Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs

Andrea Werdecker

Ronny Westerman

Harvey Whiteford

Justyna Widecka

Katarzyna Widecka

Tissa Wijeratne

Andrea Sylvia Winkler

Charles Shey Wiysonge

Charles D A Wolfe

Shouling Wu

Grant M A Wyper

Gelin Xu

Tomohide Yamada

Yuichiro Yano

Mehdi Yaseri

Yasin Jemal Yasin

Pengpeng Ye

Gökalp Kadri Yentür

Alex Yeshaneh

Ebrahim M Yimer

Paul Yip

Engida Yisma

Naohiro Yonemoto

Seok-Jun Yoon

Marcel Yotebieng

Mustafa Z Younis

Mahmoud Yousefifard

Chuanhua Yu

Vesna Zadnik

Zoubida Zaidi

Sojib Bin Zaman

Mohammad Zamani

Zohreh Zare

Mulugeta Molla Zeleke

Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe

Taddese Alemu Zerfu

Xueying Zhang

Xiu-Ju Zhao

Maigeng Zhou

Jun Zhu

Stephanie R M Zimsen

Sanjay Zodpey

Leo Zoeckler

Alan D Lopez

Stephen S Lim

Abstract

© 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date Nov 1, 2018
Journal The Lancet
Print ISSN 0140-6736
Electronic ISSN 1474-547X
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 392
Issue 10159
Pages 1995-2051
Institution Citation Murray, C. J. L., Callender, C. S. K. H., Kulikoff, X. R., Srinivasan, V., Abate, D., Abate, K. H., …Lim, S. S. (2018). Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet, 392(10159), 1995-2051. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736%2818%2932278-5
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736%2818%2932278-5
Keywords General Medicine
Publisher URL https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673618322785?via%3Dihub
Additional Information Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.

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© 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license




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