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A fractional cointegration VAR analysis of Islamic stocks: A global perspective (2019)
Journal Article
Salisu, A. A., Ndako, U. B., Adediran, I. A., & Swaray, R. (2019). A fractional cointegration VAR analysis of Islamic stocks: A global perspective. North American journal of economics and finance, 101056. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2019.101056

In this study, we analyse the behaviour of Islamic stocks from a global perspective covering an array of regional Islamic stock markets. Both the fractional integration and fractional cointegration techniques are employed. Thus, we are able to establ... Read More about A fractional cointegration VAR analysis of Islamic stocks: A global perspective.

Can urban coffee consumption help predict U.S. inflation? (2019)
Journal Article
Salisu, A. A., Swaray, R., & Adediran, I. A. (in press). Can urban coffee consumption help predict U.S. inflation?. Journal of forecasting, https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2589

Motivated by the importance of coffee to Americans and the significance of the coffee subsector to the US economy, we pursue three notable innovations. First, we augment the traditional Phillips curve model with the coffee price as a predictor, and s... Read More about Can urban coffee consumption help predict U.S. inflation?.

Improving the predictability of the oil–US stock nexus: The role of macroeconomic variables (2019)
Journal Article
Salisu, A. A., Swaray, R., & Oloko, T. F. (2019). Improving the predictability of the oil–US stock nexus: The role of macroeconomic variables. Economic modelling, 76, 153-171. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.07.029

In this study, we revisit the oil–stock nexus by accounting for the role of macroeconomic variables and testing their in-sample and out-of-sample predictive powers. We follow the approaches of Lewellen (2004) and Westerlund and Narayan (2015), which... Read More about Improving the predictability of the oil–US stock nexus: The role of macroeconomic variables.

A firm-level analysis of the upstream-downstream dichotomy in the oil-stock nexus (2018)
Journal Article
Swaray, R., & Salisu, A. A. (2018). A firm-level analysis of the upstream-downstream dichotomy in the oil-stock nexus. Global finance journal, 37, 199-218. doi:10.1016/j.gfj.2018.05.007

In this paper, we query whether the stock prices of nonintegrated firms in the upstream and downstream sectors of the global oil supply chain respond symmetrically to changes in oil prices. This inquiry relates to the “homogenous expectation” assumpt... Read More about A firm-level analysis of the upstream-downstream dichotomy in the oil-stock nexus.

U.S. stocks in the presence of oil price risk: Large cap vs. small cap (2017)
Journal Article
Swaray, R., Salisu, A. A., & Oloko, T. (2017). U.S. stocks in the presence of oil price risk: Large cap vs. small cap. Economics and business letters, 6(4), 116-124. https://doi.org/10.17811/ebl.6.4.2017.116-124

This study queries the act of making generalization about the dynamics of returns and volatility spillovers between oil price and U.S. stocks by merely considering only large cap stocks. It argues that this kind of generalization may be misleading, a... Read More about U.S. stocks in the presence of oil price risk: Large cap vs. small cap.

Forecasting the return volatility of energy prices: A GARCH-MIDAS approach (2017)
Book Chapter
Salisu, A. A., & Swaray, R. (in press). Forecasting the return volatility of energy prices: A GARCH-MIDAS approach. In S. Goutte, & D. K. Nguyen (Eds.), Handbook of energy finance: Theories, practices and simulationsWorld Scientific Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1142/11213

This chapter offers an extension to the literature on energy prices by forecasting the return volatility of these prices using the GARCH-MIDAS approach. In addition to the realized volatility, it also evaluates the predictability of relevant macroeco... Read More about Forecasting the return volatility of energy prices: A GARCH-MIDAS approach.

Parental expectations and school enrolment decisions: Evidence from rural Ghana (2015)
Journal Article
Ahiakpor, F., & Swaray, R. (2015). Parental expectations and school enrolment decisions: Evidence from rural Ghana. Review of development economics, 19(1), 132-142. doi:10.1111/rode.12122

We use field data to investigate factors which influence parents’ decision to enrol children in schools in rural Ghana. The empirical results identified a host of socio-economic and household-level factors including remittances parents expect from in... Read More about Parental expectations and school enrolment decisions: Evidence from rural Ghana.

Market reforms and commodity price volatility: the case of East African Coffee Market (2013)
Journal Article
Lukanima, B., & Swaray, R. (2014). Market reforms and commodity price volatility: the case of East African Coffee Market. The World economy, 37(8), 1152-1185. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12124

The goal of this paper is to examine the impact of commodity market reforms on producer price volatility using evidence from the East African coffee market. The results, based on time-varying volatility models and key summary statistics, show that co... Read More about Market reforms and commodity price volatility: the case of East African Coffee Market.

Commodity buffer stock redux: the role of International Cocoa Organization in prices and incomes (2011)
Journal Article
Swaray, R. (2011). Commodity buffer stock redux: the role of International Cocoa Organization in prices and incomes. Journal of policy modeling, 33(3), (361-369). doi:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2011.03.002. ISSN 0161-8938

This paper utilizes linear demand and supply models, with additive independent shocks, to derive producer price and income variances of a typical commodity during and after a buffer stock control. It proceeds to use the models to evaluate Internation... Read More about Commodity buffer stock redux: the role of International Cocoa Organization in prices and incomes.

New Labour legacy: comparing the Labour governments of Blair and Brown to Labour governments since 1945 (2010)
Journal Article
Mullard, M., & Swaray, R. (2010). New Labour legacy: comparing the Labour governments of Blair and Brown to Labour governments since 1945. The Political quarterly, 81(4), 511-521. doi:10.1111/j.1467-923x.2010.02131.x

The election of the Conservative-Liberal coalition in May 2010 provides the opportunity to start to map out the record of the Labour governments between 1997 and 2010. This paper deals with the specific question how the Brown/Blair governments perfor... Read More about New Labour legacy: comparing the Labour governments of Blair and Brown to Labour governments since 1945.

The politics of public expenditure from Thatcher to Blair (2006)
Journal Article
Mullard, M., & Swaray, R. (2006). The politics of public expenditure from Thatcher to Blair. Policy and Politics, 34(3), (495-515). doi:10.1332/030557306777695343. ISSN 0305-5736

The central concerns of this study are twofold: first, to analyse the nature of the politics of public expenditure under both the Thatcher and Blair governments and to ask whether changes in government did make a difference. Second, to deal with the... Read More about The politics of public expenditure from Thatcher to Blair.