Fire risk reduction on the margins of an urbanizing world

: • ​ ​ Purpose: Globally, over 95% of fire related deaths and injuries occur in low- and middle-income countries. Within informal settlements, the risk of fire resulting in injury or death is particularly high. This paper examines fire risks in informal settlements in New Delhi and Cape Town, and tented informal settlements in Lebanon. • ​ Approach: Our analysis draws on primary sources, secondary literature, statistical data and qualitative interviews. • ​ Findings: The distribution of fire risk across urban societies is a fundamentally political issue. Residential fire risk can be tackled by accessible, affordable, safety-compliant housing. That said, important interim measures can be taken to mitigate fire risk. Some of the risks requiring attention are similar across our case studies, driven by high population densities; flammable housing materials; unreliable or inaccessible access to safe power sources; and in the case of Cape Town and New Delhi particularly - the inability of fire services to reach sites of fire. However, these common risks are embedded in distinct social, economic and political contexts that must be placed at the centre of any intervention. Interventions must also be aware that the risk of fire is not spread evenly within informal settlements, intersecting as it does with factors like gender, age, health and disability. • ​ Originality: Informal settlement fires have been under-studied to date. The studies that do exist tend to operate within disciplinary silos. This paper represents an important interdisciplinary approach to fire within informal settlements, which grounds technical data, modelling and experiments in


New Delhi
Urban fire is a hidden problem in India, largely unseen and underreported despite the devastation it causes. Officially, police statistics reported 17,700 deaths by 'accidental fire' (excluding forest fire) in 2015 (National Crime Records Bureau, 2016). However, a 2001 study suggests this figure might be six times higher, (Jagnoor et al. , 2009, Sanghavi, Bhalla andDas, 2009). This makes fire second, behind traffic accidents, as the 4 main cause of death by 'unnatural causes' (National Crime Records Bureau, 2016).
New Delhi is the second most densely populated city in India after Mumbai. UN projections suggest that it will become the most populous city in the world by 2028 (UN, 2018). Population density varies greatly from 4,057 persons/km 2 in New Delhi district to 36,155 persons/km 2 in the North district (Delhi Fire Service (DFS), 2017).
These figure are highly likely to be underestimates, given that the underrepresentation of data in urban areas (Sanghavi et al., 2009). Anecdotal evidence suggests that large-scale urban fires occurring in the "colonies" (districts) of the outer suburbs are not fully recorded in official statistics (Interview: Community Spokesperson 1, North West Delhi 27/7/18) with potentially thousands of incidences being unrecorded (Satapathy and Walia, 2007).
Official statistics are collated by the Police Department who are required to attend all callouts of the Delhi Fire Service (DFS).
Inequality fundamentally shapes the distribution of fire risk in New Delhi (Bankoff et al., 2012). Fire regulations (namely the National Building Code, the Delhi Fire Prevention and Fire Safety Act 1986, and provisions of the Delhi Fire Service Act 2007) are broadly followed in the relatively affluent centre with its government buildings, embassies and upmarket residences; in the formal commercial and retail sectors; and in the middle-to-upper class suburbs. Buildings of five stories or over also require a No Objection Certificate (NOC) from the DFS before occupancy. Of course, fires do occur in these more affluent spaces and not all landlords adhere to fire regulations. The violation of existing safety regulations in this building prompted the passing of the Delhi Fire Prevention of Fire Safety Act after three lives were lost in a high-rise office building fire in 1986 (Interview: Senior 5 DFS Officer 1, New Delhi 13/4/18). Overall, however, economic resources are sufficient here for people to fulfil building regulations. These are sufficiently policed -by occupants and the state -to enforce compliance. Only traffic limits fire service access to such properties.
Elsewhere, construction materials, poor infrastructure, population density, and limited access combine to heighten fire risk. Numerous informal settlement forms exist on Delhi's urban margins, spanning the spectrum of formality and legality. As Bhan (2009:131) highlights, only 23.7% of Delhi residents abide in 'planned colonies that met all conditions of legality' when they were established'. The term 'unauthorised colonies' tends to refer to more affluent but illegal housing; the poorer equivalents of these dwellings are referred to as 'JJ Clusters' (Ibid).
Those living in 'slum-designated areas' may be in a similar economic position to those in JJ Clusters but their areas were authorised through the 1956 Slum Areas Act (Ibid.).
Unsurprisingly, given their similar architectural and socio-economic profile, there are similar fire risks in areas designated as 'slums' and 'JJ Clusters', due to population density, flammability of building materials and reliance on open flames . Traffic also poses a challenge for fire services. The average speed for engines used to be 5 https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/indiascope/story/19870731-ansal-bhavan-fire-highlights-gross-neglect-and-violation-of-s afety-laws-in-delhi-799102-1987-07-31#close-overlay -Accessed [10/8/18] 6 Fire services have attempted to tailor their equipment to better tackle informal settlement fires, such as smaller, four-wheeled vehicles and motorcycles equipped with hydraulic pumps or foam apparatuses. For water, the DFS relies on a fleet of tankers from 3,000 L capacity for narrower thoroughfares to giant 12,000 L tankers.
Larger fires need a fleet of tankers continuously circulating between the fire and a water source and which in many cases, may be up to 12 km away. Tanker and take up to 1.5-2 hours to refill and return to the fire (Interview: Senior DFS Officer 1, New Delhi 13/4/18). Firefighting equipment, pumps, hoses, breathing apparatuses and flame-retardant clothing is generally regarded as adequate and in good working order. However, firefighters seldom want to don heavy safety gear, modelled on western designs, in summer temperatures that regularly exceed 35° C, and where most buildings' entrances and corridors are extremely narrow (Interview: Station Officer 2, South East Delhi 25/7/18). This increases firefighter fatalities and encourages external rather than internal firefighting, despite senior officer's claims to the contrary (Interview: Station Officer 4, North West Delhi 11/4/18; Interview :Senior DFS Officer 1, New Delhi 13/4/18).
Gender intersects with the political and economic factors, heightening fire risk. Across India, nearly two-thirds (106,000 out of 163,000 in 2001) of all fire deaths are female, mostly between 15 and 34 years of age.
This proportion is higher in urban areas. Whilst specific data on Delhi is lacking, there is no reason to believe that fire risk in the city is not highly gendered. Official statistics do not provide insight into the causes of these fire deaths, but qualitative research suggests that they may, in part, be attributable to the gendered social and economic roles of women who take primary responsibility for domestic cooking. Cooking with open flames or poor electricity connections can be hazardous. In poorer homes, cooking is done outside over an open fire to minimise fire risk (Interview: Community Spokesperson 1, North West Delhi 27/7/18). Additionally, there is a high prevalence of females within industrial spaces -such as textile factories -that flout fire regulations , and local 7 studies suggest that over a third of fire-related deaths may be attributed to suicide-by-self-immolation or domestic violence in response to a bride's proposed dowry (Kapur 2002, Sanghavi, Bhalla andDas, 2009).
Arson, be it for insurance fraud or for land clearance, is another trigger for fires in Delhi. For instance, a whole "colony" of informal structures in Bawana in North West Delhi was deliberately set alight with locals reporting that the fire brigade unfortunately only arriving after the entire settlement had burnt to the ground, the implication being that the delay was intentional (Interview: Community Spokesperson 1, North West Delhi 27/7/18).
Fire ignition and fire spread in Delhi are seasonal. Stations receive fewer callouts in winter -on average one or two each day -than in summer (April to July) which may be as many as six calls every 24 hours with the fire risk exacerbated by high temperatures (Interview: Station Officer 2, South East Delhi 25/7/18). Fires are also more frequent during the monsoons because rainwater causes appliances to short-circuit. Sparks can be generated at any time of the year as the intermittent power supply to many areas of the city causes power surges (Interview: Station Officer 1, South Delhi 26/7/18). In turn, regular 'brownouts' (electricity reductions) mean that many local residents use candles for illumination (Interview: Community Spokesperson 1, North West Delhi 27/7/18). Festivals add to the seasonal rhythms of fire. During Diwali, for example, private and public spaces are illuminated by lights or oil lamps called diyas and fireworks are launched. The convergence of so many naked flames, crowds and festivities results in the DFS receiving as many as 200+ callouts between 4pm and 1am on that single night (Interview: Senior DFS Officer 1, New Delhi 13/4/18). 7 For instancehttps://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/11/fire-kills-factory-workers-india-sahibabad-161111072912321.html

Cape Town
South Africa is the world's most unequal country. In 2011, approximately 1.66 million households resided in informal residential areas, from a total population of 51.8 million. Estimates suggest that between 18% and 33% 8 of the population live in 'backyard dwellings' (informal structures erected on formal housing sites) (Pharoah, 2009).
The Fire Protection Association of South Africa (FPASA) compiles data on fire from brigades across the country but not all brigades provide complete reporting (FPASA, 2018). Consequently, the data typically  Cape Town, home to four million people, is the world's fifth most unequal city and still bears the marks of apartheid segregation. Unemployment remains approximately 27% across the country and whilst the government has delivered housing since 1994, an estimated backlog of 350,000 housing units remains (StatsSA, 2018). Much of the housing that has been delivered has reinforced the spatial marginalisation of economically deprived citizens, and has often been of mixed quality. The shortage and unsuitability of housing stock has meant that the number of people living within informal settlements and backyard dwellings continues to grow (Turok and Borel-Saladin, 2016). Whilst these settlements are not authorised by the government, their layout may be informally planned and locally governed. Some settlements have clear roads, walkways and gaps between homes, while others are very densely populated with narrow passages (Figure 3).

Services)
Fire risk is extremely high within informal settlements. As many as 10,000 people can be left homeless in a single fire (Pluke, 2017). In 2017, for example, a fire in Imizamo Yethu (Figure 4), left 2194 homes destroyed, despite the efforts of 176 firefighters (Kahanji et al., 2019). The disaster management and recovery from this incident cost the municipality over R100m ($7m) (Pluke, 2017); approximately the cost of 650 low-cost homes.
Fire incident statistics collected by the City of Cape Town showed that between 2009 and 2015 the number of informal settlement fires doubled from just over 150 to over 320 fires per year. On average the fire service will be called out to an informal settlement fire once a day, and every week a fire will affect more than 20 dwellings. A spatial distribution analysis of fire incidents ( Figure 5) reveals that some reveals that some 9 settlements are prone to many fire incidents and in which many structures are destroyed, highlighting areas within the city at highest fire risk. Smoke and fire detectors provide a potential risk reduction solution. However, certain devices, for instance those relying on rate-of-temperature-rise, will not activate in smouldering fires (Walls et al., 2017). A smouldering fire is a low temperature fire with no visible flames (Quintiere, 2016). In the Wallacedene TRA settlement, a recent longitudinal study investigated the rollout of 1,400 photoelectric smoke alarm devices (Zweig et al., 2018). Although interpretation of the trial was complicated by the contemporaneous installation of electricity, anecdotal evidence indicated that some lives were saved due to early warning. However, further refinements to the devices are required to reduce the amount of false alarms, and make them suited to the realities of everyday life.
Another intervention in Cape Town is the application of intumescent paints, which expand upon heating and provide an insulating barrier. However, their effectiveness may be hampered by cost, durability and performance in fire (Krishnamoorthy and Bailey, 2009). Recent, unpublished, informal settlement dwelling fire tests indicate that openings between walls and roofs significantly reduce the effectiveness of such paint, unless it is combined with improved firestopping.
Finally, reblocking has been attempted as a means of remodelling informal settlements to create fire breaks and better access for the fire services (Sokupa, 2012). This process can be highly contentious, as it involves the relocation and reconstruction of some people's homes. Whilst some efforts have been successful, other reblocking exercises have been forced to cease due to local opposition.

Lebanon
In Lebanon, one million registered Syrian refugees make up over 20% of the population (UNHCR, 2016). Whilst local authorities and humanitarian agencies have collaborated to enhance services and infrastructure for refugees and host communities (UNHCR, 2016), fire safety has not been prioritised. There is a lack of fire safety expertise within humanitarian agencies, and national firefighting capacity and fire safety is low.
Fire risk as an issue in refugee contexts in Lebanon has often 'fallen through the cracks' between sectors and agencies. Redressing this gap is no easy task: political and social relations between and within host and refugee communities, humanitarian agencies, fire responders and different levels of government must be understood and engaged with strategically, reflecting the fact that fire risk and fire risk reduction is as political as it is technical.
Many displaced Syrians and Palestinians live in the approximately 7,000 mapped tented informal settlements scattered across Lebanon (Kazerooni et al. , 2016). Settlements range from 1 to 238 tents with over half of the settlements having four or fewer tents. Of the residential and non-residential buildings used for habitation, 25% and 48% respectively are deemed below the minimum physical humanitarian standards The high density in which most refugees live leads to a high risk of rapid fire spread. Beyond that, variations in structure shape fire risk. The points of ignition for fire within informal refugee settlements are similar to those found in informal settlements in New Delhi and Cape Town. Open flames or informal electricity connections are used for cooking, heating, and lighting in most settlements because residents are banned from obtaining formal electricity connections In sub-standard buildings, electrical faults are also a risk due to poor quality wiring and connections, enabled by poor dissemination and policing of fire safety regulations. Arguably, sub-standard buildings pose a greater risk of fire fatalities and injuries due to limited means of egress, compared to single level, simply laid out tented settlements (Inter-Agency Coordination Lebanon et al., 2018). In both informal settlements and sub-standard buildings, construction materials such as tarpaulin, wood, plastic, cardboard and rubber tyres to weigh-down roofs may aid the spread of fire ( Figure 6). As in New Delhi and Cape Town, seasonal dynamics matter, particularly within informal settlements. Summertime, which is hot, dry and windy in Lebanon, is particularly hazardous. Arson is also a cause of some refugee settlement fires. The wider literature on fires in refugee settlements has highlighted the role of conflict-related arson (e.g. Olsen and Rodriguez, 2004) but in Lebanon fire-setting by children left at home by working parents has also been observed.
Whilst the political and socio-economic position of refugees puts most at a relatively high risk of fire, this risk is not spread evenly across the refugee population. In addition to children, the elderly and people with disabilities are vulnerable due to health, sensory and mobility issues. Technical responses outlined for informal settlements centre around settlement-level interventions such as fire breaks and community first-responder equipment such as fire extinguishers and beaters located at fire points throughout the settlement.
Other prevention and preparedness activities recommended relate to capacity building within humanitarian staff and awareness raising of fire risk and risk reduction techniques in refugee and host communities. The FPPR also pushed for the training of community-based first responder teams, particularly within informal settlements. To date, awareness raising has been gendered, attempting to mirror existing gender roles and norms. For men, community level hazard assessments, evacuation drills, fire break techniques, and training with appropriate equipment to tackle the fires were key components; for women household level hazard assessments of risks (cooking, heating, electricity etc.) and how to use fire extinguishers were the key issues.
Awareness raising has also targeted children with key messages about what to do if a fire breaks out, who to call and what to say, evacuation drills and personal fire safety.

Comparative insights and future developments
Informal settlement fires have deadly implications across the globe. Yet, as these case studies demonstrate, they receive comparably little attention from policy makers. Even statistics for fire-related incidents are, at best, lower bound estimates (Twigg et al., 2017). Not counting people's deaths accurately is symptomatic of the fact that populations within informal settlements often do not 'count' politically: the same marginalisation -politically, economically and socially -that forces people to remain within informal settlements, with increased fire risk, also means that their injury and death are less likely to be recorded and recognised. The marginalisation of informal settlement residents, however, does not mean that fire risk is distributed equally within settlements.
Rather, it intersects with factors like gender, age, health and disability. Our case studies demonstrate that the majority of fires within informal settlements are started accidentally. When an ignition occurs, the materials of informal dwellings are usually readily ignitable woods, plastics and cloths that release large amounts of stored energy into a developing fire. A fire can easily spread due to combustible construction materials, the storage of fuel within and around homes, the proximity of adjacent homes and the density of the settlement. The fire either finds a natural barrier and burns itself out, or humans intervene and put it out . The latter requires good access (rare in space-constrained informal settlements), sufficient water supply (which is challenged by urban infrastructure capacities and global warming), proximal response teams, and a means with which the public can easily contact those teams and tell them where they are required.
Fundamentally, provision of accessible, affordable, safety-compliant housing is needed to mitigate fire risks. In the interim, incremental improvements can be made with careful attention paid to the social, political and economic contexts of the communities involved. Community-led risk mapping at local level can be a helpful means of engaging with this contextual picture to help minimise risk and build resilience (Aphaylath et al., 2004;MacGregor et al., 2005;Rahmawati et al., 2016). This can be paired with appropriate training, education and equipment to improve a community's capacity to act as a fire responder (World Health Organization (WHO), 2011; Zweig et al., 2018). Both approaches can help people to effect meaningful change. The danger, however, is that such initiatives 'responsibilise' communities and lessen pressure on the state or other governing bodies to change the broader structural picture that pushes people into situations of risk in the first place. These governing bodies must, as a matter of urgency, prioritise the provision of interim services, such as the safe provision of affordable electricity and the wholescale provision of sustainable, formal housing.

Conclusions and final remarks
Urban areas are increasingly seen as places where economic, social and environmental development can achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) (Koch and Ahmad, 2018). However, this is threatened by fire hazards and other disasters that can result in loss of life, damage to infrastructure, and the associated costs of rebuilding. SDG 11 aims to "make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable" and to substantially increase the number of cities and human settlements adopting and implementing integrated policies and plans for resilience (UN Habitat, 2015b.The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030(UNISDR, 2015 aims to substantially reduce global disaster mortality by 2030 through priorities for action which include "Build Back Better" in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction. In line with this, the resilience of cities should be strengthened through development of quality infrastructure and spatial planning to reduce vulnerability and risk in informal settlements. This includes the development of infrastructure that is resilient, resource efficient and will reduce the risks and impact of disaster (UN Habitat, 2016).
Urban fires, particularly those in informal and low-income settlements, constitute a significant risk, but are still relatively invisible and neglected in disaster management policy and practice. They are the only major hazard not included as a category in the IFRC's annual World Disaster Reports (IFRC, 2016). This neglect is due in a large part to the lack of accurate, consistent and comprehensive data on fire incidence and causal factors (LMICs generally lack the resources and capacities to create strong datasets that could inform and stimulate more effective action), partly to the lack of formal fire management capabilities and resources, and partly because tackling fire in a comprehensive manner would require a political response from all levels of government, led by community needs and interests.
Any attempts to mitigate fire risk prior to a comprehensive political response that tackles the causes of fire must also be community led. The complex socio-politico-economic landscape of each settlement means solutions that fit one situation cannot necessarily be used in another. Therefore, community involvement is vital to ensure that interventions are appropriate, achievable, and sustainable within the local context. Also vital is the participation of fire services and their roles in both risk management and response to fires, and their active engagement in developing new strategies and working methods for urban fires.
The challenges posed by urban fires need to be addressed. Effective evidenced-based fire engineering strategies will help increase communities' resilience to urban fire risk, and ultimately help to create sustainable cities.