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High-frequency trading from an evolutionary perspective: Financial markets as adaptive systems (2018)
Journal Article
Manahov, V., Hudson, R., & Urquhart, A. (2018). High-frequency trading from an evolutionary perspective: Financial markets as adaptive systems. International journal of finance & economics : IJFE, 24(2), 943-962. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1700

The recent rapid growth of algorithmic high-frequency trading strategies makes it a very interesting time to revisit the long-standing debates about the efficiency of stock prices and the best way to model the actions of market participants. To evalu... Read More

Momentum effects in China: A review of the literature and an empirical explanation of prevailing controversies (2018)
Journal Article
Yang, Y., Gebka, B., & Hudson, R. (2019). Momentum effects in China: A review of the literature and an empirical explanation of prevailing controversies. Research in international business and finance, 47, 78-101. doi:10.1016/j.ribaf.2018.07.003

© 2018 Elsevier B.V. The contribution of this paper is to enable solid conclusions to be drawn about the existence of momentum effects in China as the current evidence is unsatisfactory. We review and analyse the existing empirical studies on momentu... Read More

Test of recent advances in extracting information from option prices (2017)
Journal Article
Healy, J. V., Gregoriou, A., & Hudson, R. (2018). Test of recent advances in extracting information from option prices. International review of financial analysis, 56, 292-302. doi:10.1016/j.irfa.2017.09.011

© 2017 Elsevier Inc. A large literature exists on techniques for extracting probability distributions for future asset prices from option prices. No definitive method has been developed however. The parametric 'mixture of normals', and non-parametric... Read More

Stock liquidity and SMEs’ likelihood of bankruptcy: evidence from the US market (2017)
Journal Article
El Kalak, I., Azevedo, A., Hudson, R., & Abd Karim, M. (2017). Stock liquidity and SMEs’ likelihood of bankruptcy: evidence from the US market. Research in international business and finance, 42, 1383-1393. doi:10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.07.077

We study the association between the stock liquidity of SMEs in the US and their likelihood of bankruptcy, using a dataset that comprises information on 5075 firms over the time period from 1984 to 2013 using the hazard model of Campbell et al. (2008... Read More

Stock predictability and preceding stock price changes - Evidence from central and Eastern European markets (2017)
Journal Article
Ison, L., & Hudson, R. (2017). Stock predictability and preceding stock price changes - Evidence from central and Eastern European markets. Economics Bulletin, 37(2), 733-740

This paper extends the empirical evidence on stock returns after preceding price innovations using data from Central and Eastern European (CEE) markets. In contrast to many previous papers, we find no evidence of either overreaction effects or ration... Read More

Sampling frequency and the performance of different types of technical trading rules (2017)
Journal Article
Hudson, R., McGroarty, F., & Urquhart, A. (2017). Sampling frequency and the performance of different types of technical trading rules. Finance research letters, 22, (136-139). doi:10.1016/j.frl.2016.12.015. ISSN 1544-6123

The predictive ability of technical trading rules has been studied in great detail however many papers group all technical trading rules together into one basket. We argue that there are two main types of technical trading rules, namely rules based o... Read More

Reviewing the hedge funds literature I: Hedge funds and hedge funds' managerial characteristics (2016)
Journal Article
El Kalak, I., Azevedo, A., & Hudson, R. (2016). Reviewing the hedge funds literature I: Hedge funds and hedge funds' managerial characteristics. International review of financial analysis, 48, (85-97). doi:10.1016/j.irfa.2016.09.008. ISSN 1057-5219

© 2016 Elsevier Inc. This paper summarizes the literature on hedge funds (HFs) developed over the last two decades, particularly that which relates to managerial characteristics (a companion piece covers the return and risk management characteristics... Read More

Reviewing the hedge funds literature II: Hedge funds' returns and risk management characteristics (2016)
Journal Article
El Kalak, I., Azevedo, A., & Hudson, R. (2016). Reviewing the hedge funds literature II: Hedge funds' returns and risk management characteristics. International review of financial analysis, 48, (55-66). doi:10.1016/j.irfa.2016.09.006. ISSN 1057-5219

© 2016 Elsevier Inc. This paper summarizes the literature on hedge funds (HFs) developed over the last two decades, particularly that which relates to risk management characteristics (a companion piece investigates the managerial characteristics of H... Read More

Dispelling the myth of a value premium: contrary evidence of Malaysian crony capitalism (2016)
Journal Article
Ebrahim, M., Hudson, R., Iqbal, A., & Eskandar Shah MohdRasid, M. (2016). Dispelling the myth of a value premium: contrary evidence of Malaysian crony capitalism. International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, 7(1), 1-33. doi:10.1504/ijbaaf.2016.079164

This paper contradicts the existence of a universal value anomaly by studying Malaysia, a country with a unique institutional setting. We investigate this counter-example to attribute the anomaly to: 1) the leverage effect of value firms; 2) the inve... Read More

Investigation of institutional changes in the UK housing market using structural break tests and time-varying parameter models (2016)
Journal Article
Zhang, H., Hudson, R., Metcalf, H., & Manahov, V. (2017). Investigation of institutional changes in the UK housing market using structural break tests and time-varying parameter models. Empirical economics, 53(2), 617-640. doi:10.1007/s00181-016-1127-z

© 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. This paper investigates the effects of institutional changes within the UK housing market in recent decades using structural break tests and time-varying parameter models. This approach is motivated by model... Read More

The price, quality and distribution of mortgage payment protection insurance: a hedonic pricing approach (2016)
Journal Article
Ashton, J. K., & Hudson, R. S. (2017). The price, quality and distribution of mortgage payment protection insurance: a hedonic pricing approach. The British accounting review, 49(2), (242-255). doi:10.1016/j.bar.2016.07.003. ISSN 0890-8389

Mortgage payment protection insurance (hereafter MPPI) provides varying combinations of accident, sickness and unemployment insurance and is used to protect the mortgage payments of policyholders in the event of a fall in income. Despite alleviating... Read More

The effect of size on the failure probabilities of SMEs : an empirical study on the US market using discrete hazard model (2015)
Journal Article
El Kalak, I., & Hudson, R. (2015). The effect of size on the failure probabilities of SMEs : an empirical study on the US market using discrete hazard model. International review of financial analysis, 43(January), (135-145). doi:10.1016/j.irfa.2015.11.009. ISSN 1057-5219

This paper investigates the extent to which the size affects the SME probabilities of bankruptcy. Using a dataset of (11,117) US non-financial firms, of which (465) filed for insolvency under chapters 7/11 between 1980 and 2013. We forecast the bankr... Read More

Do house prices overreact to relevant information? New evidence from the UK housing market (2015)
Journal Article
Hudson, R., Manahov, V., Metcalf, H., & Zhang, H. (in press). Do house prices overreact to relevant information? New evidence from the UK housing market. Investment management & financial innovations, 12(3), 33-46

We use recent panel data and various empirical models to investigate the validity of the irrational expectations hypothesis and the feedback theory in the UK housing market. We provide the first empirical evidence to justify the statistically signifi... Read More

Investor sentiment and local bias in extreme circumstances: the case of the Blitz (2015)
Journal Article
Hudson, R., & Urquhart, A. (2015). Investor sentiment and local bias in extreme circumstances: the case of the Blitz. Research in international business and finance, 36(January), (340-350). doi:10.1016/j.ribaf.2015.09.010. ISSN 0275-5319

© 2015 Elsevier B.V. This paper treats the Blitz, the bombing of Britain during World War Two, as a natural experiment which can provide insights into the effects of investor sentiment on stock returns. The period of the Blitz is very interesting in... Read More

Which heuristics can aid financial-decision-making? (2015)
Journal Article
Forbes, W., Hudson, R., Skerratt, L., & Soufian, M. (2015). Which heuristics can aid financial-decision-making?. International review of financial analysis, 42(December), 199-210. doi:10.1016/j.irfa.2015.07.002

© 2015 Elsevier Inc. We evaluate the contribution of Nobel Prize-winner Daniel Kahneman, often in association with his late co-author Amos Tversky, to the development of our understanding of financial decision-making and the evolution of behavioural... Read More

Identification of house price bubbles using user cost in a state space model (2015)
Journal Article
Hudson, R., Manahov, V., Metcalf, H., & Zhang, H. (2015). Identification of house price bubbles using user cost in a state space model. Applied economics, 47(56), (6088-6101). doi:10.1080/00036846.2015.1064078. ISSN 0003-6846

© 2015 Taylor & Francis. This article studies how much variation in house prices results from nonfundamental factors. We propose a relative valuation approach to quantifying a bubble in housing by incorporating the housing User Cost into a state sp... Read More

The benefits of combining seasonal anomalies and technical trading rules (2015)
Journal Article
Gebka, B., Hudson, R. S., & Atanasova, C. V. (2015). The benefits of combining seasonal anomalies and technical trading rules. Finance research letters, 14, (36-44). doi:10.1016/j.frl.2015.06.001. ISSN 1544-6123

Although many seasonal anomalies and technical trading rules have been shown to have predictive ability, investigations have focused only on them operating individually. We study the benefits of trading based on combinations of three of the best know... Read More

How exactly do markets adapt? Evidence from the moving average rule in three developed markets (2015)
Journal Article
Urquhart, A., Gebka, B., & Hudson, R. (2015). How exactly do markets adapt? Evidence from the moving average rule in three developed markets. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 38, (127-147). doi:10.1016/j.intfin.2015.05.019. ISSN 1042-4431

The seminal study by Brock, Lakonishok and LeBaron (1992) (BLL hereafter) found that the moving average rule had strong predictive power over 90 years in the DJIA, and this result was confirmed by Hudson et al. (1996) for the FT30 in the UK and Chen... Read More

War and stock markets: The effect of World War Two on the British stock market (2015)
Journal Article
Hudson, R., & Urquhart, A. (2015). War and stock markets: The effect of World War Two on the British stock market. International review of financial analysis, 40(July), (166-177). doi:10.1016/j.irfa.2015.05.015. ISSN 1057-5219

© 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. This paper studies the effect of World War Two (WWII) on the British stock market. It contributes to the literature in several ways. First, this paper thoroughly investigates the impact of historically major... Read More