This study explores the short-run predictability of, and the risks facing investors in, Singapore's private housing market. We explicitly model a periodically collapsing rational speculative bubble within the present value framework, and propose an unconventional approach as a first-step to screen for structural break(s). We found that a rational speculative bubble is an important predictor of the short-run price growth, especially in volatile times. Furthermore, rent is the only fundamental having a non-negligible impact. The study suggests that the major risk facing market participants comes from unpredictable local policy shifts, and/or a potentially predictable systemic risk. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.
Xiao, Q., & Huang, W. (2010). Risk and predictability of Singapore's private residential market. Quantitative finance, 10(5), 529-543. https://doi.org/10.1080/14697680903236113