Skip to main content

Hydrological modelling using data from monthly GCMs in a regional catchment

Remesan, Renji; Bellerby, Tim; Frostick, Lynne

Authors

Renji Remesan

Lynne Frostick



Abstract

This study demonstrates the use of spatially downscaled, monthly general circulation model (GCM) rainfall and temperature data to drive the established HyMOD hydrological model to evaluate the prospective effects of climate change on the fluvial run-off of the River Derwent basin in the UK. The evaluation results of this monthly hydrological model using readily available, monthly GCM data are consistent with studies on nearby catchments employing high-temporal resolution data, indicating that useful hydro-climatic planning studies may be possible using standard datasets and modest computational resources. HyMOD was calibrated against 5 km2 gridded UK Climate Projections dataset data and then driven using monthly spatially interpolated (~5 km2) outputs from Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES) A2a and B2a covering the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Results for both GCMs project a decrease in annual run-off in both GCM models and scenarios with higher values in the summer/autumn months, whereas an increase in the later winter months. Both Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis show higher ranges of uncertainty during the winter season with higher values of run-off associated with December in all three simulation periods and two scenarios. A seasonal comparison of run-off simulations shows that both GCMs give similar results in summer and autumn, whereas disparities due to GCM uncertainties are more conspicuous in winter and spring. In this study, both the GCMs under A2a scenario have demonstrated the high possibility of time shift in monthly average peak run-offs in the Derwent River by 2080s in comparison with the early 21st century.

Publication Date Apr 15, 2014
Journal Hydrological processes
Print ISSN 0885-6087
Electronic ISSN 1099-1085
Publisher Wiley
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 28
Issue 8
Pages 3241-3263
APA6 Citation Remesan, R., Bellerby, T., & Frostick, L. (2014). Hydrological modelling using data from monthly GCMs in a regional catchment. Hydrological Processes, 28(8), 3241-3263. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9872
DOI https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9872
Keywords CCCMA; HadCM3; Auxiliary-HyMOD; Parameter estimation; Blaney-Criddle potential evaporation; A2a; B2a; United Kingdom
Publisher URL http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.9872/abstract
Copyright Statement ©2016 University of Hull
Additional Information This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Remesan, R., Bellerby, T. and Frostick, L. (2014), Hydrological modelling using data from monthly GCMs in a regional catchment. Hydrol. Process., 28:3241–3263. doi:10.1002/hyp.9872, which has been published in final form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9872. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.

Files





You might also like



Downloadable Citations

;