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Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

Bryazka, Dana; Reitsma, Marissa B.; Griswold, Max G.; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen; Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab; Abdoli, Amir; Abdollahi, Mohammad; Abdullah, Abu Yousuf Md; Abhilash, E. S.; Abu-Gharbieh, Eman; Acuna, Juan Manuel; Addolorato, Giovanni; Adebayo, Oladimeji M.; Adekanmbi, Victor; Adhikari, Kishor; Adhikari, Sangeet; Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah; Afzal, Saira; Agegnehu, Wubetu Yimam; Aggarwal, Manik; Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku; Ahmad, Araz Ramazan; Ahmad, Sajjad; Ahmad, Tauseef; Ahmadi, Ali; Ahmadi, Sepideh; Ahmed, Haroon; Ahmed Rashid, Tarik; Akunna, Chisom Joyqueenet; Al Hamad, Hanadi; Alam, Md Zakiul; Alem, Dejene Tsegaye; Alene, Kefyalew Addis; Alimohamadi, Yousef; Alizadeh, Atiyeh; Allel, Kasim; Alonso, Jordi; Alvand, Saba; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amare, Firehiwot; Ameyaw, Edward Kwabena; Amiri, Sohrab; Ancuceanu, Robert; Anderson, Jason A.; Andrei, Catalina Liliana; Andrei, Tudorel; Arabloo, Jalal; Arshad, Muhammad; Artamonov,...

Authors

Dana Bryazka

Marissa B. Reitsma

Max G. Griswold

Kalkidan Hassen Abate

Cristiana Abbafati

Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari

Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari

Amir Abdoli

Mohammad Abdollahi

Abu Yousuf Md Abdullah

E. S. Abhilash

Eman Abu-Gharbieh

Juan Manuel Acuna

Giovanni Addolorato

Oladimeji M. Adebayo

Victor Adekanmbi

Kishor Adhikari

Sangeet Adhikari

Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani

Saira Afzal

Wubetu Yimam Agegnehu

Manik Aggarwal

Bright Opoku Ahinkorah

Araz Ramazan Ahmad

Sajjad Ahmad

Tauseef Ahmad

Ali Ahmadi

Sepideh Ahmadi

Haroon Ahmed

Tarik Ahmed Rashid

Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna

Hanadi Al Hamad

Md Zakiul Alam

Dejene Tsegaye Alem

Kefyalew Addis Alene

Yousef Alimohamadi

Atiyeh Alizadeh

Kasim Allel

Jordi Alonso

Saba Alvand

Nelson Alvis-Guzman

Firehiwot Amare

Edward Kwabena Ameyaw

Sohrab Amiri

Robert Ancuceanu

Jason A. Anderson

Catalina Liliana Andrei

Tudorel Andrei

Jalal Arabloo

Muhammad Arshad

Anton A. Artamonov

Zahra Aryan

Malke Asaad

Mulusew A. Asemahagn

Thomas Astell-Burt

Seyyed Shamsadin Athari

Desta Debalkie Atnafu

Prince Atorkey

Alok Atreya

Floriane Ausloos

Marcel Ausloos

Getinet Ayano

Martin Amogre Ayanore

Olatunde O. Ayinde

Jose L. Ayuso-Mateos

Sina Azadnajafabad

Melkalem Mamuye Azanaw

Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy

Amirhossein Azari Jafari

Ahmed Y. Azzam

Ashish D. Badiye

Nasser Bagheri

Sara Bagherieh

Mohan Bairwa

Shankar M. Bakkannavar

Ravleen Kaur Bakshi

Awraris Hailu Balchut Bilchut

T. W. Bärnighausen

Fabio Barra

Amadou Barrow

Pritish Baskaran

Luis Belo

Derrick A. Bennett

Isabela M. Bensenor

Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula

Neeraj Bhala

Ashish Bhalla

Nikha Bhardwaj

Pankaj Bhardwaj

Sonu Bhaskar

Krittika Bhattacharyya

Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja

Bagas Suryo Bintoro

Elena A.Elena Blokhina

Belay Boda Abule Bodicha

Archith Boloor

Cristina Bosetti

Dejana Braithwaite

Hermann Brenner

Nikolay Ivanovich Briko



Abstract

Background: The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. Methods: For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose–response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15–95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol. Findings: The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15–39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0–0) and 0·603 (0·400–1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0–0) and 1·75 (0·698–4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0–0·403) to 1·87 (0·500–3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0–0·900) and 6·94 (3·40–8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3–65·4) were aged 15–39 years and 76·9% (73·0–81·3) were male. Interpretation: There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Citation

Bryazka, D., Reitsma, M. B., Griswold, M. G., Abate, K. H., Abbafati, C., Abbasi-Kangevari, M., …Soyiri, I. (2022). Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020. Lancet, 400(10347), 185-235. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736%2822%2900847-9

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Jul 14, 2022
Online Publication Date Jul 14, 2022
Publication Date Jul 16, 2022
Deposit Date Jun 20, 2024
Publicly Available Date Jun 28, 2024
Journal The Lancet
Print ISSN 0140-6736
Electronic ISSN 1474-547X
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 400
Issue 10347
Pages 185-235
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736%2822%2900847-9
Public URL https://hull-repository.worktribe.com/output/4713620

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