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Defining scenarios of future vectors of change in marine life and associated economic sectors

Groeneveld, Rolf A.; Bosello, Francesco; Butenschön, Momme; Elliott, Mike; Peck, Myron A.; Pinnegar, John K.


Rolf A. Groeneveld

Francesco Bosello

Momme Butenschön

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Professor Mike Elliott
Emeritus Professor of Estuarine and Coastal Sciences/ Research Professor, Institute of Estuarine and Coastal Studies

Myron A. Peck

John K. Pinnegar


© 2015 Elsevier Ltd. Addressing the multitude of challenges in marine policy requires an integrated approach that considers the multitude of drivers, pressures, and interests, from several disciplinary angles. Scenarios are needed to harmonise the analyses of different components of the marine system, and to deal with the uncertainty and complexity of the societal and biogeophysical dynamics in the system. This study considers a set of socio-economic scenarios to (1) explore possible futures in relation to marine invasive species, outbreak forming species, and gradual changes in species distribution and productivity; and (2) harmonise the projection modelling performed within associated studies. The exercise demonstrates that developing interdisciplinary scenarios as developed in this study is particularly complicated due to (1) the wide variety in endogeneity or exogeneity of variables in the different analyses involved; (2) the dual role of policy decisions as variables in a scenario or decisions to be evaluated and compared to other decisions; and (3) the substantial difference in time scale between societal and physical drivers.


Groeneveld, R. A., Bosello, F., Butenschön, M., Elliott, M., Peck, M. A., & Pinnegar, J. K. (2018). Defining scenarios of future vectors of change in marine life and associated economic sectors. Estuarine, coastal and shelf science, 201, 164-171.

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Oct 17, 2015
Online Publication Date Oct 20, 2015
Publication Date 2018-02
Deposit Date Aug 6, 2018
Journal Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science
Print ISSN 0272-7714
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 201
Pages 164-171
Keywords Climatic changes; Socioeconomic aspects; International policy; Ecosystem management; Scenarios
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