Outputs (8)

Quantifying speculative-bubble effects in major European soccer leagues (2025)
Journal Article
Fry, J., & Binner, J. (2025). Quantifying speculative-bubble effects in major European soccer leagues. Economics letters, 248, Article 112208. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112208

We apply the theory of super-exponential rational bubbles to football transfer data. Refining previous qualitative approaches we model the aggregate transfer spend as a fraction of the TV income. Evidence of substantial bubble effects is found across... Read More about Quantifying speculative-bubble effects in major European soccer leagues.

An options-pricing approach to forecasting the French presidential election (2024)
Journal Article
Fry, J., Hastings, T., & Binner, J. (online). An options-pricing approach to forecasting the French presidential election. Journal of the Operational Research Society, https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2024.2334339

A subjective probability argument suggests vote-share estimates from polling companies can be interpreted as market prices. The corresponding election constitutes the price at a known future date. This makes an options-pricing approach particularly a... Read More about An options-pricing approach to forecasting the French presidential election.

Attention to Authority: The behavioural finance of Covid-19 (2022)
Journal Article
Burke, M., Fry, J., Kemp, S., & Woodhouse, D. (2022). Attention to Authority: The behavioural finance of Covid-19. Finance research letters, 49, Article 103081. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103081

In this paper we investigate the predictability of cryptocurrency returns following increases in Covid-19 cases/deaths. We find that the rate of government intervention moderates the impact that Covid-19 cases/deaths have on cryptocurrency returns. W... Read More about Attention to Authority: The behavioural finance of Covid-19.

Voting intentions on social media and political opinion polls (2021)
Journal Article
Pekar, V., Najafi, H., Binner, J., Swanson, R., Rickard, C., & Fry, J. (in press). Voting intentions on social media and political opinion polls. Government information quarterly, Article 101658. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.giq.2021.101658

Opinion polls play an important role in modern democratic processes: they are known to not only affect the outcomes of elections, but also have a significant influence on government policy after elections. Recent years have seen large discrepancies b... Read More about Voting intentions on social media and political opinion polls.

Managing performance expectations in association football (2021)
Journal Article
Fry, J., Serbera, J.-P., & Wilson, R. (2021). Managing performance expectations in association football. Journal of business research, 135, 445-453. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2021.06.052

Motivated by excessive managerial pressure and sackings, together with associated questions over the inefficient use of scarce resources, we explore realistic performance expectations in association football. Our aim is to improve management quality... Read More about Managing performance expectations in association football.

Booms, busts and heavy tails: the story of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets (2018)
Journal Article
Fry, J. (2018). Booms, busts and heavy tails: the story of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets. Economics letters, 171, 225-229. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2018.08.008

We develop bespoke rational bubble models for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies that incorporate both heavy tails and the probability of a complete collapse in asset prices. Empirically, we present robustified evidence of bubbles in Bitcoin and Ethereum.... Read More about Booms, busts and heavy tails: the story of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets.

Negative bubbles and shocks in cryptocurrency markets (2016)
Journal Article
Fry, J., & Cheah, E.-T. (2016). Negative bubbles and shocks in cryptocurrency markets. International review of financial analysis, 47, 343-352. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2016.02.008

In this paper we draw upon the close relationship between statistical physics and mathematical finance to develop a suite of models for financial bubbles and crashes. The derived models allow for a probabilistic and statistical formulation of econoph... Read More about Negative bubbles and shocks in cryptocurrency markets.

Speculative bubbles in Bitcoin markets? An empirical investigation into the fundamental value of Bitcoin (2015)
Journal Article
Cheah, E.-T., & Fry, J. (2015). Speculative bubbles in Bitcoin markets? An empirical investigation into the fundamental value of Bitcoin. Economics letters, 130, 32-36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2015.02.029

Amid its rapidly increasing usage and immense public interest the subject of Bitcoin has raised profound economic and societal issues. In this paper we undertake economic and econometric modelling of Bitcoin prices. As with many asset classes we show... Read More about Speculative bubbles in Bitcoin markets? An empirical investigation into the fundamental value of Bitcoin.