Is mortality spatial or social?

O'Hare, Colin; Li, Youwei

Abstract

Mortality modelling for the purposes of demographic forecasting and actuarial pricing is generally done at an aggregate level using national data. Modelling at this level fails to capture the variation in mortality within country and potentially leads to a mis-specification of mortality forecasts for a subset of the population. This can have detrimental effects for pricing and reserving in the actuarial context. In this paper we consider mortality rates at a regional level and analyse the variation in those rates. We consider whether variation in mortality rates within a country can be explained using local economic and social variables. Using Northern Ireland data on mortality and measures of deprivation we identify the variables explaining mortality variation. We create a population polarisation variable and find that this variable is significant in explaining some of the variation in mortality rates. Further, we consider whether spatial and non-spatial models have a part to play in explaining mortality differentials.

Citation

O'Hare, C., & Li, Y. (2014). Is mortality spatial or social?. Economic modelling, 42, 198-207. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.06.009

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Jun 27, 2014
• Online Publication Date: Jul 19, 2014
• Publication Date: 2014-10
• Deposit Date: Mar 19, 2019
• Publicly Available Date: Aug 11, 2020
• Journal: Economic Modelling
• Print ISSN: 0264-9993
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 42
• Pages: 198-207
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.06.009
• Keywords: Mortality rates; Frailty models; Deprivation measures
• Public URL: https://hull-repository.worktribe.com/output/1113356
• Publisher URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999314002399?via%3Dihub
• Related Public URLs: https://pure.qub.ac.uk/en/publications/is-mortality-spatial-or-social
• Additional Information: This article is maintained by: Elsevier; Article Title: Is mortality spatial or social?; Journal Title: Economic Modelling; CrossRef DOI link to publisher maintained version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.06.009; Content Type: article; Copyright: Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.