Dr Ireneous Soyiri I.N.Soyiri@hull.ac.uk
Senior Lecturer in Epidemiology
Dr Ireneous Soyiri I.N.Soyiri@hull.ac.uk
Senior Lecturer in Epidemiology
Daniel D. Reidpath
Devendra Amre
Editor
The concept of forecasting asthma using humans as animal sentinels is uncommon. This study explores the plausibility of predicting future asthma daily admissions using retrospective data in London (2005-2006). Negative binomial regressions were used in modeling; allowing the non-contiguous autoregressive components. Selected lags were based on partial autocorrelation function (PACF) plot with a maximum lag of 7 days. The model was contrasted with naïve historical and seasonal models. All models were cross validated. Mean daily asthma admission in 2005 was 27.9 and in 2006 it was 28.9. The lags 1, 2, 3, 6 and 7 were independently associated with daily asthma admissions based on their PACF plots. The lag model prediction of peak admissions were often slightly out of synchronization with the actual data, but the days of greater admissions were better matched than the days of lower admissions. A further investigation across various populations is necessary. © 2012 Soyiri, Reidpath.
Soyiri, I. N., & Reidpath, D. D. (2012). Humans as Animal Sentinels for Forecasting Asthma Events: Helping Health Services Become More Responsive. PLoS ONE, 7(10), e47823. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0047823
Journal Article Type | Article |
---|---|
Acceptance Date | Sep 17, 2012 |
Online Publication Date | Oct 31, 2012 |
Publication Date | Oct 31, 2012 |
Deposit Date | May 15, 2019 |
Publicly Available Date | May 21, 2019 |
Journal | PLoS ONE |
Print ISSN | 1932-6203 |
Publisher | Public Library of Science |
Peer Reviewed | Peer Reviewed |
Volume | 7 |
Issue | 10 |
Pages | e47823 |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0047823 |
Keywords | General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology; General Agricultural and Biological Sciences; General Medicine |
Public URL | https://hull-repository.worktribe.com/output/1755653 |
Contract Date | May 21, 2019 |
Published article
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Publisher Licence URL
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Copyright Statement
© 2012 Soyiri, Reidpath. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
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