Dr Ireneous Soyiri I.N.Soyiri@hull.ac.uk
Senior Lecturer in Epidemiology
Forecasting asthma-related hospital admissions in London using negative binomial models
Soyiri, Ireneous N.; Reidpath, Daniel D.; Sarran, Christophe
Authors
Daniel D. Reidpath
Christophe Sarran
Contributors
Dr Ireneous Soyiri I.N.Soyiri@hull.ac.uk
Project Leader
Abstract
Health forecasting can improve health service provision and individual patient outcomes. Environmental factors are known to impact chronic respiratory conditions such as asthma, but little is known about the extent to which these factors can be used for forecasting. Using weather, air quality and hospital asthma admissions, in London (2005-2006), two related negative binomial models were developed and compared with a naive seasonal model. In the first approach, predictive forecasting models were fitted with 7-day averages of each potential predictor, and then a subsequent multivariable model is constructed. In the second strategy, an exhaustive search of the best fitting models between possible combinations of lags (0-14 days) of all the environmental effects on asthma admission was conducted. Three models were considered: a base model (seasonal effects), contrasted with a 7-day average model and a selected lags model (weather and air quality effects). Season is the best predictor of asthma admissions. The 7-day average and seasonal models were trivial to implement. The selected lags model was computationally intensive, but of no real value over much more easily implemented models. Seasonal factors can predict daily hospital asthma admissions in London, and there is a little evidence that additional weather and air quality information would add to forecast accuracy. © The Author(s) 2013.
Citation
Soyiri, I. N., Reidpath, D. D., & Sarran, C. (2013). Forecasting asthma-related hospital admissions in London using negative binomial models. Chronic Respiratory Disease, 10(2), 85-94. https://doi.org/10.1177/1479972313482847
Journal Article Type | Article |
---|---|
Online Publication Date | Apr 25, 2013 |
Publication Date | May 1, 2013 |
Deposit Date | May 15, 2019 |
Journal | Chronic Respiratory Disease |
Print ISSN | 1479-9723 |
Electronic ISSN | 1479-9731 |
Publisher | SAGE Publications (UK and US) |
Peer Reviewed | Peer Reviewed |
Volume | 10 |
Issue | 2 |
Pages | 85-94 |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.1177/1479972313482847 |
Public URL | https://hull-repository.worktribe.com/output/1756210 |
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