Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat; Lozano, Rafael; Fullman, Nancy; Abate, Degu; Abay, Solomon M.; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbasi, Nooshin; Abbastabar, Hedayat; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abdela, Jemal; Abdelalim, Ahmed; Abdel-Rahman, Omar; Abdi, Alireza; Abdollahpour, Ibrahim; Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi; Abebe, Nebiyu Dereje; Abebe, Zegeye; Abejie, Ayenew Negesse; Abera, Semaw F.; Abil, Olifan Zewdie; Aboyans, Victor; Abraha, Haftom Niguse; Abrham, Aklilu Roba; Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me; Abyu, Gebre Y.; Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou; Acharya, Dilaram; Acharya, Pawan; Adamu, Abdu A.; Adebayo, Oladimeji M.; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi; Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji; Adekanmbi, Victor; Adetokunboh, Olatunji O.; Adhena, Beyene Meressa; Adhikari, Tara Ballav; Adib, Mina G.; Adou, Arsène Kouablan; Adsuar, Jose C.; Afarideh, Mohsen; Afshari, Mahdi; Afshin, Ashkan; Agarwal, Gina; Aghayan, Sargis Aghasi; Agius, Dominic; Agrawal, Anurag; Agrawal, Sutapa; Ahmadi, Alireza; Ahmadi, Mehdi; Ahmad...
Authors
Rafael Lozano
Nancy Fullman
Degu Abate
Solomon M. Abay
Cristiana Abbafati
Nooshin Abbasi
Hedayat Abbastabar
Foad Abd-Allah
Jemal Abdela
Ahmed Abdelalim
Omar Abdel-Rahman
Alireza Abdi
Ibrahim Abdollahpour
Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader
Nebiyu Dereje Abebe
Zegeye Abebe
Ayenew Negesse Abejie
Semaw F. Abera
Olifan Zewdie Abil
Victor Aboyans
Haftom Niguse Abraha
Aklilu Roba Abrham
Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad
Niveen Me Abu-Rmeileh
Gebre Y. Abyu
Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi
Dilaram Acharya
Pawan Acharya
Abdu A. Adamu
Oladimeji M. Adebayo
Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji
Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin
Victor Adekanmbi
Olatunji O. Adetokunboh
Beyene Meressa Adhena
Tara Ballav Adhikari
Mina G. Adib
Arsène Kouablan Adou
Jose C. Adsuar
Mohsen Afarideh
Mahdi Afshari
Ashkan Afshin
Gina Agarwal
Sargis Aghasi Aghayan
Dominic Agius
Anurag Agrawal
Sutapa Agrawal
Alireza Ahmadi
Mehdi Ahmadi
Hamid Ahmadieh
Muktar Beshir Ahmed
Sayem Ahmed
Temesgen Yihunie Akalu
Ali S. Akanda
Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari
Mohammed Akibu
Rufus Olusola Akinyemi
Tomi Akinyemiju
Nadia Akseer
Fares Alahdab
Ziyad Al-Aly
Khurshid Alam
Tahiya Alam
Ammar Albujeer
Animut Alebel
Kefyalew Addis Alene
Ayman Al-Eyadhy
Samia Alhabib
Raghib Ali
Mehran Alijanzadeh
Reza Alizadeh-Navaei
Syed Mohamed Aljunid
Ala'a Alkerwi
François Alla
Peter Allebeck
Christine A. Allen
Ali Almasi
Fatma Al-Maskari
Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi
Jordi Alonso
Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi
Ubai Alsharif
Khalid Altirkawi
Nelson Alvis-Guzman
Azmeraw T. Amare
Kebede Amenu
Erfan Amini
Walid Ammar
Nahla Hamed Anber
Jason A. Anderson
Catalina Liliana Andrei
Sofia Androudi
Megbaru Debalkie Animut
Mina Anjomshoa
Hossein Ansari
Ansariadi Ansariadi
Mustafa Geleto Ansha
Carl Abelardo T. Antonio
Palwasha Anwari
Lambert Tetteh Appiah
Olatunde Aremu
Habtamu Abera Areri
Johan Ärnlöv
Monika Arora
Krishna K Aryal
Hamid Asayesh
Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw
Solomon Weldegebreal Asgedom
Rana Jawad Asghar
Reza Assadi
Zerihun Ataro
Suleman Atique
Sachin R Atre
Madhu Sudhan Atteraya
Marcel Ausloos
Leticia Avila-Burgos
Euripide F G A Avokpaho
Ashish Awasthi
Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla
Henok Tadesse Ayele
Yohanes Ayele
Rakesh Ayer
Mahmoud Reza Azarpazhooh
Peter S Azzopardi
Natasha Azzopardi-Muscat
Tesleem Kayode Babalola
Arefeh Babazadeh
Hamid Badali
Alaa Badawi
Kalpana Balakrishnan
Ayele Geleto Bali
Maciej Banach
Amitava Banerjee
Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub
Amrit Banstola
Aleksandra Barac
Miguel A Barboza
Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo
Till Winfried Bärnighausen
Lope H Barrero
Celine M Barthelemy
Quique Bassat
Arindam Basu
Sanjay Basu
Robert J Battista
Bernhard T Baune
Habtamu Wondifraw Baynes
Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi
Neeraj Bedi
Ettore Beghi
Masoud Behzadifar
Meysam Behzadifar
Yannick Béjot
Bayu Begashaw Bekele
Abate Bekele Belachew
Aregawi Gebreyesus Belay
Saba Abraham Belay
Yihalem Abebe Belay
Michelle L Bell
Aminu K Bello
Derrick A Bennett
Isabela M Bensenor
Habib Benzian
Adugnaw Berhane
Abadi Kidanemariam Berhe
Adam E Berman
Eduardo Bernabe
Robert S Bernstein
Gregory J Bertolacci
Mircea Beuran
Tina Beyranvand
Neeraj Bhala
Ashish Bhalla
Anil Bhansali
Suraj Bhattarai
Soumyadeep Bhaumik
Zulfiqar A Bhutta
Belete Biadgo
Molly H Biehl
Ali Bijani
Boris Bikbov
Nigus Bililign
Sait Mentes Birlik
Charles Birungi
Helen Bitew
Hailemichael Bizuneh
Ruxandra Irina Negoi
Subas Neupane
Charles Richard James Newton
Espen Bjertness
Eshetu Mulisa Bobasa
Soufiane Boufous
Frida N Ngalesoni
Kayvan Bozorgmehr
Nicola Luigi Bragazzi
Michael Brainin
Luisa C Brant
Michael Brauer
Alexandra Brazinova
Nicholas J K Breitborde
Paul Svitil Briant
Gabrielle Britton
Traolach Brugha
Gene Bukhman
Reinhard Busse
Zahid A Butt
Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado
Charlton SKH Callender
Ismael R Campos-Nonato
Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon
Jorge Cano
Josip Car
Mate Car
Rosario Cárdenas
Juan J Carrero
Austin Carter
Félix Carvalho
Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela
Jacqueline Castillo Rivas
Franz Castro
Kate Causey
Alanur Çavlin
Kelly M Cercy
Ester Cerin
Yazan Chaiah
Julian Chalek
Hsing-Yi Chang
Jung-Chen Chang
Aparajita Chattopadhyay
Vijay Kumar Chattu
Pankaj Chaturvedi
Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang
Ken Lee Chin
Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa
Abdulaal Chitheer
Jee-Young J Choi
Rajiv Chowdhury
Hanne Christensen
Devasahayam J Christopher
Sheng-Chia Chung
Flavia M Cicuttini
Liliana G Ciobanu
Massimo Cirillo
Rafael M Claro
Thomas Khaled Dwayne Claßen
Aaron J Cohen
Daniel Collado-Mateo
Cyrus Cooper
Leslie Trumbull Cooper
Leslie Cornaby
Monica Cortinovis
Megan Costa
Ewerton Cousin
Elizabeth A Cromwell
Christopher Stephen Crowe
Matthew Cunningham
Alemneh Kabeta Daba
Abel Fekadu Dadi
Lalit Dandona
Rakhi Dandona
Anh Kim Dang
Paul I Dargan
Ahmad Daryani
Siddharth K Das
Rajat Das Gupta
José das Neves
Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa
Aditya Prasad Dash
Adrian C Davis
Dragos Virgil Davitoiu
Kairat Davletov
Anand Dayama
Barbora de Courten
Diego De Leo
Jan-Walter De Neve
Hans De Steur
Meaza Girma Degefa
Louisa Degenhardt
Tizta Tilahun Degfie
Selina Deiparine
Robert P Dellavalle
Gebre Teklemariam Demoz
Balem Demtsu
Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez
Kebede Deribe
Nikolaos Dervenis
Getenet Ayalew Dessie
Subhojit Dey
Samath D Dharmaratne
Meghnath Dhimal
Daniel Dicker
Mesfin Tadese Dinberu
Eric L Ding
Shirin Djalalinia
Huyen Phuc Do
Klara Dokova
David Teye Doku
Dirk Douwes-Schultz
Tim Robert Driscoll
Leilei Duan
Manisha Dubey
Eleonora Dubljanin
Eyasu Ejeta Duken
Bruce B Duncan
Andre R Duraes
Soheil Ebrahimpour
David Edvardsson
Charbel El Bcheraoui
Erika Eldrenkamp
Ziad El-Khatib
Iqbal RF Elyazar
Ahmadali Enayati
Aman Yesuf Endries
Babak Eshrati
Sharareh Eskandarieh
Alireza Esteghamati
Sadaf Esteghamati
Kara Estep
Mahdi Fakhar
Hamed Fakhim
Jessica Fanzo
Mahbobeh Faramarzi
Mohammad Fareed
Farzaneh Farhadi
Talha A Farid
Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha
Andrea Farioli
Andre Faro
Maryam S Farvid
Farshad Farzadfar
Mohammad Hosein Farzaei
Hossein Farzam
Ali Akbar Fazaeli
Mir Sohail Fazeli
Valery L Feigin
Andrea B Feigl
Wubalem Fekadu
Rachel Feldman
Netsanet Fentahun
Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad
Eduarda Fernandes
Joao C Fernandes
Garumma Tolu Feyissa
Daniel Obadare Fijabi
Irina Filip
Samuel Finegold
Jonas David Finger
Florian Fischer
Christina Fitzmaurice
Luisa Sorio Flor
Nataliya A Foigt
Kyle J Foreman
Tahvi D Frank
Richard Charles Franklin
Takeshi Fukumoto
Kai Fukutaki
John E Fuller
Thomas Fürst
João M Furtado
Emmanuela Gakidou
Silvano Gallus
Fortune Gbetoho Gankpe
Ron T Gansevoort
Ana Cristina Garcia
Alberto L Garcia-Basteiro
Miguel A Garcia-Gordillo
William M Gardner
Abadi Kahsu Gebre
Teshome Gebre
Gebremedhin Berhe Gebregergs
Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot
Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin
Bereket Gebremichael
Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael
Tilayie Feto Gelano
Johanna M Geleijnse
Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo
Sefonias Getachew
Peter W Gething
Kebede Embaye Gezae
Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami
Reza Ghadimi
Keyghobad Ghadiri
Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman
Hesam Ghiasvand
Mamata Ghimire
Aloke Gopal Ghoshal
Simona Giampaoli
Paramjit Singh Gill
Tiffany K Gill
Giorgia Giussani
Elena V Gnedovskaya
Ellen M Goldberg
Srinivas Goli
Philimon N Gona
Amador Goodridge
Sameer Vali Gopalani
Taren M Gorman
Atsushi Goto
Alessandra C Goulart
Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart
Ayman Grada
Max G Griswold
Giuseppe Grosso
Harish Chander C Gugnani
Francis Guillemin
Andre Luiz Sena Guimaraes
Yuming Guo
Prakash C Gupta
Rahul Gupta
Rajeev Gupta
Tanush Gupta
Giang Hai Ha
Juanita A Haagsma
Vladimir Hachinski
Nima Hafezi-Nejad
Hassan Haghparast Bidgoli
Tekleberhan B Hagos
Michael Tamene Haile
Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis
Gessessew Bugssa Hailu
Arvin Haj-Mirzaian
Arya Haj-Mirzaian
Randah R Hamadeh
Samer Hamidi
Graeme J Hankey
Hilda L Harb
Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan
Hamidreza Haririan
Josep Maria Haro
Mehedi Hasan
Hadi Hassankhani
Hamid Yimam Hassen
Rasmus Havmoeller
Caitlin N Hawley
Simon I Hay
Yihua He
Akbar Hedayatizadeh-Omran
Mohamed I Hegazy
Behzad Heibati
Behnam Heidari
Mohsen Heidari
Delia Hendrie
Andualem Henok
Ileana Heredia-Pi
Claudiu Herteliu
Behzad Heydarpour
Fatemeh Heydarpour
Sousan Heydarpour
Desalegn T Hibstu
Martha Híjar
Hans W Hoek
Daniel J Hoffman
Michael K Hole
Enayatollah Homaie Rad
Praveen Hoogar
Nobuyuki Horita
H Dean Hosgood
Seyed Mostafa Hosseini
Mehdi Hosseinzadeh
Mihaela Hostiuc
Sorin Hostiuc
Peter J Hotez
Damian G Hoy
Mohamed Hsairi
Thomas Hsiao
Guoqing Hu
John J Huang
Caitlyn Hughes
Chantal K Huynh
Ehimario U Igumbor
Chad Thomas Ikeda
Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi
Usman Iqbal
Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani
Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine
Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam
Farhad Islami
Rebecca Q Ivers
Neda Izadi
Kathryn H Jacobsen
Leila Jahangiry
Nader Jahanmehr
Sudhir Kumar Jain
Mihajlo Jakovljevic
Moti Tolera Jalu
Amr A Jamal
Spencer L James
Simerjot K Jassal
Mehdi Javanbakht
Achala Upendra Jayatilleke
Panniyammakal Jeemon
Ravi Prakash Jha
Vivekanand Jha
John S Ji
Catherine O Johnson
Sarah C Johnson
Jost B Jonas
Jitendra Jonnagaddala
Zahra Jorjoran Shushtari
Ankur Joshi
Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak
Suresh Banayya Jungari
Mikk Jürisson
Madhanraj K
Zubair Kabir
Rajendra Kadel
Amaha Kahsay
Molla Kahssay
Rizwan Kalani
Umesh Kapil
Manoochehr Karami
Behzad Karami Matin
Marina Karanikolos
Narges Karimi
Seyed M Karimi
Hamidreza Karimi-Sari
Amir Kasaeian
Dessalegn H Kassa
Getachew Mullu Kassa
Tesfaye Dessale Kassa
Zemenu Yohannes Kassa
Nicholas J Kassebaum
Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi
Anil Kaul
Norito Kawakami
Zhila Kazemi
Ali Kazemi Karyani
Dhruv Satish Kazi
Prakash KC
Seifu Kebede
Peter Njenga Keiyoro
Laura Kemmer
Grant Rodgers Kemp
Andre Pascal Kengne
Andre Keren
Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran
Yousef Saleh Khader
Behzad Khafaei
Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie
Alireza Khajavi
Nauman Khalid
Ibrahim A Khalil
Ejaz Ahmad Khan
Muhammad Shahzeb Khan
Muhammad Ali Khan
Young-Ho Khang
Tripti Khanna
Mona M Khater
Alireza Khatony
Zahra Khazaeipour
Habibolah Khazaie
Abdullah T Khoja
Ardeshir Khosravi
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Jagdish Khubchandani
Aliasghar A Kiadaliri
Helen W Kiarie
Getiye D Kibret
Daniel N Kiirithio
Daniel Kim
Jun Y Kim
Young-Eun Kim
Yun Jin Kim
Ruth W Kimokoti
Yohannes Kinfu
Sanjay Kinra
Adnan Kisa
Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek
Niranjan Kissoon
Mika Kivimäki
Jonathan M Kocarnik
Sonali Kochhar
Yoshihiro Kokubo
Tufa Kolola
Jacek A Kopec
Margaret N Kosek
Soewarta Kosen
Parvaiz A Koul
Ai Koyanagi
Michael A Kravchenko
Kewal Krishan
Kristopher J Krohn
Barthelemy Kuate Defo
Burcu Kucuk Bicer
Andreas A Kudom
Xie Rachel Kulikoff
G Anil Kumar
Manasi Kumar
Pushpendra Kumar
Michael J Kutz
Hmwe Hmwe Kyu
Carl Lachat
Deepesh P Lad
Sheetal D Lad
Alessandra Lafranconi
Abraham K Lagat
Dharmesh Kumar Lal
Ratilal Lalloo
Hilton Lam
Faris Hasan Lami
Prabhat Lamichhane
Qing Lan
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Van C Lansingh
Sonia Lansky
Heidi J Larson
Anders O Larsson
Dennis Odai Laryea
Zohra S Lassi
Arman Latifi
Kathryn Mei-Ming Lau
Avula Laxmaiah
Jeffrey V Lazarus
Janet L Leasher
Georgy Lebedev
Jorge R Ledesma
James B Lee
Paul H Lee
Andrew T Leever
James Leigh
Mall Leinsalu
Cheru Tesema Leshargie
Janni Leung
Sonia Lewycka
Shanshan Li
Xiaohong Li
Yichong Li
Juan Liang
Xiaofeng Liang
Misgan Legesse Liben
Lee-Ling Lim
Miteku Andualem Limenih
Shai Linn
Shiwei Liu
Yang Liu
Rakesh Lodha
Giancarlo Logroscino
Alan D Lopez
Stefan Lorkowski
Paulo A Lotufo
Lydia R Lucchesi
Ronan A Lyons
Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan
Mark T Mackay
Emilie R Maddison
Fabiana Madotto
Dhaval P Maghavani
Carlos Magis-Rodriguez
Narayan Bahadur Mahotra
Marek Majdan
Reza Majdzadeh
Azeem Majeed
Reza Malekzadeh
Deborah Carvalho Malta
Abdullah A Mamun
Ana-Laura Manda
Luiz Garcia Mandarano-Filho
Srikanth Mangalam
Helena Manguerra
Mohammad Ali Mansournia
Chabila Christopher Mapoma
Joemer C Maravilla
Wagner Marcenes
Ashley Marks
Randall V Martin
Sheila C O Martins
Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo
Ira Martopullo
Tivani Phosa Mashamba-Thompson
Benjamin Ballard Massenburg
Manu Raj Mathur
Pallab K Maulik
Mohsen Mazidi
Colm McAlinden
John J McGrath
Martin McKee
Brian J McMahon
Suresh Mehata
Man Mohan Mehndiratta
Ravi Mehrotra
Kala M Mehta
Varshil Mehta
Fabiola Mejia-Rodriguez
Tesfa Mekonen
Tefera C Chane Mekonnen
Hagazi Gebre Meles
Addisu Melese
Mulugeta Melku
Peter T N Memiah
Ziad A Memish
Walter Mendoza
Desalegn Tadese Mengistu
Getnet Mengistu
George A Mensah
Gert B M Mensink
Seid Tiku Mereta
Atte Meretoja
Tuomo J Meretoja
Tomislav Mestrovic
Haftay Berhane Mezgebe
Bartosz Miazgowski
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Anoushka I Millear
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Molly Katherine Miller-Petrie
George J Milne
G K Mini
Shawn P Minnig
Parvaneh Mirabi
Mojde Mirarefin
Erkin M Mirrakhimov
Awoke Temesgen Misganaw
Philip B Mitchell
Babak Moazen
Ali Akbar Moghadamnia
Bahram Mohajer
Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad
Moslem Mohammadi
Noushin Mohammadifard
Mousa Mohammadnia-Afrouzi
Mohammed A Mohammed
Shafiu Mohammed
Murali B V Mohan
Viswanathan Mohan
Farnam Mohebi
Modhurima Moitra
Ali H Mokdad
Mariam Molokhia
Lorenzo Monasta
Julio Cesar Montañez
Mahmood Moosazadeh
Ghobad Moradi
Mahmoudreza Moradi
Maziar Moradi-Lakeh
Mehdi Moradinazar
Paula Moraga
Lidia Morawska
Joana Morgado-da-Costa
Naho Morisaki
Shane Douglas Morrison
Abbas Mosapour
Marilita M Moschos
W Cliff Mountjoy-Venning
Simin Mouodi
Seyyed Meysam Mousavi
Achenef Asmamaw Muche
Kindie Fentahun Muchie
Ulrich Otto Mueller
Oumer Sada S Muhammed
Satinath Mukhopadhyay
Erin C Mullany
Kate Muller
John Everett Mumford
Manoj Murhekar
G V S Murthy
Srinivas Murthy
Jonah Musa
Kamarul Imran Musa
Ghulam Mustafa
Saravanan Muthupandian
Ashraf F Nabhan
Jean B Nachega
Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan
Gabriele Nagel
Mohsen Naghavi
Aliya Naheed
Josephine W Ngunjiri
Rupert Bourne
Anh Nguyen
Grant Nguyen
Ha Nguyen
Huong Lan Thi Nguyen
Huong Thanh Nguyen
Minh Nguyen
Emma Nichols
Tuhin Biswas
Kovin Naidoo
Bruno Ramos Nascimento
Haseeb Nawaz
Nahid Neamati
Ionut Negoi
Donal Bisanzio
Azin Nahvijou
Hae Sung Nam
Luigi Naldi
Farid Najafi
Gurudatta Naik
Nitish Naik
Vinay Nangia
Jobert Richie Nansseu
Solomon Gedlu Nigatu
Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum
Molly R Nixon
Yirga Legesse Nirayo
Muhammad Imran Nisar
Nomonde Nolutshungu
Marika Nomura
Ole F Norheim
Mehdi Noroozi
Bo Norrving
Jean Jacques Noubiap
Hamid Reza Nouri
Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh
Mohammad Reza Nowroozi
Peter S Nyasulu
Carla Makhlouf Obermeyer
Richard Ofori-Asenso
Okechukwu Samuel Ogah
Felix Akpojene Ogbo
In-Hwan Oh
Anselm Okoro
Kelechi E Oladimeji
Olanrewaju Oladimeji
Andrew T Olagunju
Tinuke O Olagunju
Pedro R Olivares
Helen Elizabeth Olsen
Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya
Jacob Olusegun Olusanya
Kanyin L Ong
Sok King Ong
Anu Mary Oommen
John Nelson Opio
Eyal Oren
Andrei Oros
Doris D V Ortega-Altamirano
Alberto Ortiz
Justin R Ortiz
Eduardo Ortiz-Panozo
Erika Ota
Stanislav S Otstavnov
Mayowa Ojo Owolabi
Mahesh P A
Smita Pakhale
Abhijit P Pakhare
Wen-Harn Pan
Adrian Pana
Basant Kumar Panda
Songhomitra Panda-Jonas
Jeyaraj Durai Pandian
Nikolaos Papantoniou
Eun-Kee Park
Charles D H Parry
Hadi Parsian
Shanti Patel
Sanghamitra Pati
Ajay Patle
George C Patton
Vishnupriya Rao Paturi
Deepak Paudel
Katherine R Paulson
Neil Pearce
Emmanuel K Peprah
David M Pereira
Norberto Perico
Aslam Pervaiz
Konrad Pesudovs
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David M Pigott
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Martin Pletcher
Constance Dimity Pond
Maarten J Postma
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Swayam Prakash
Narayan Prasad
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Manita Pyakurel
Mostafa Qorbani
Reginald Quansah
Amir Radfar
Anwar Rafay
Alireza Rafiei
Fakher Rahim
Kazem Rahimi
Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar
Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar
Mahfuzar Rahman
Md Shafiur Rahman
Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman
Muhammad Aziz Rahman
Sajjad ur Rahman
Rajesh Kumar Rai
Fatemeh Rajati
Sasa Rajsic
Usha Ram
Saleem M Rana
Chhabi Lal Ranabhat
Prabhat Ranjan
Davide Rasella
David Laith Rawaf
Salman Rawaf
Christian Razo-García
K Srinath Reddy
Robert C Reiner
Cesar Reis
Marissa B Reitsma
Giuseppe Remuzzi
Andre M N Renzaho
Serge Resnikoff
Luz Myriam Reynales-Shigematsu
Satar Rezaei
Shahab Rezaeian
Mohammad Sadegh Rezai
Seyed Mohammad Riahi
Antonio Luiz P Ribeiro
Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas
Kedir Teji Roba
Nicholas L S Roberts
Leonardo Roever
Luca Ronfani
Gholamreza Roshandel
Ali Rostami
Gregory A Roth
Ambuj Roy
Enrico Rubagotti
George Mugambage Ruhago
Yogesh Damodar Sabde
Perminder S Sachdev
Basema Saddik
Ehsan Sadeghi
Hosein Safari
Yahya Safari
Roya Safari-Faramani
Mahdi Safdarian
Sare Safi
Saeid Safiri
Rajesh Sagar
Amirhossein Sahebkar
Mohammad Ali Sahraian
Haniye Sadat Sajadi
Nasir Salam
Joseph S Salama
Payman Salamati
Raphael de Freitas Saldanha
Zikria Saleem
Yahya Salimi
Hamideh Salimzadeh
Joshua A Salomon
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Taddese Alemu Zerfu
Anthony Lin Zhang
Xueying Zhang
Maigeng Zhou
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Liesel Joanna J Zuhlke
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Christopher J L Murray
Abstract
Background
Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.
Methods
We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.
Findings
The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.
Interpretation
The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
Citation
Bin Sayeed, M. S., Lozano, R., Fullman, N., Abate, D., Abay, S. M., Abbafati, C., …Murray, C. J. L. (2018). Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet, 392(10159), 2091-2138. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736%2818%2932281-5
Journal Article Type | Article |
---|---|
Acceptance Date | Nov 8, 2018 |
Online Publication Date | Nov 10, 2018 |
Publication Date | 2018-11 |
Deposit Date | May 15, 2019 |
Publicly Available Date | May 17, 2019 |
Journal | The Lancet |
Print ISSN | 0140-6736 |
Electronic ISSN | 1474-547X |
Publisher | Elsevier |
Peer Reviewed | Peer Reviewed |
Volume | 392 |
Issue | 10159 |
Pages | 2091-2138 |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736%2818%2932281-5 |
Keywords | General Medicine |
Public URL | https://hull-repository.worktribe.com/output/1757465 |
Publisher URL | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673618322815?via%3Dihub |
Additional Information | This article is maintained by: Elsevier; Article Title: Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017; Journal Title: The Lancet; CrossRef DOI link to publisher maintained version: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32281-5; Content Type: article; Copyright: © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. |
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© 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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