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Dependability Analysis Using Temporal Fault Trees and Monte Carlo Simulation

Edifor, Ernest; Gordon, Neil; Walker, Martin


Ernest Edifor

Martin Walker


Wojciech Zamojski

Jacek Mazurkiewicz

Jaros?aw Sugier

Tomasz Walkowiak

Janusz Kacprzyk


The safety and reliability of high-consequence systems is an issue of utmost importance to engineers because such systems can have catastrophic effects if they fail. Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a well-known probabilistic technique for assessing the reliability of safety-critical systems. Standard FTA approaches are primarily static analysis techniques and as such cannot effectively model systems with dynamic behaviours, such as those with standby components or multiple modes of operation. There have been several efforts to address this limitation, one of which is Pandora, a temporal fault tree approach. Pandora uses three temporal gates—Priority-AND, Simultaneous-AND, and Priority-OR—to model the effects of sequences of events. Hitherto, Pandora was unable to perform a holistic evaluation of a full system that is repairable, taking account of useful system operating environment variables (such as time of operation, flow rate, etc.) or system data such as repair state and preventive maintenance. This paper aims to address these limitations. Algorithms to evaluate different system configurations have been generated and techniques for modelling and analyzing different system data in a simulation platform have been proposed. This paper extends the capabilities of Pandora so that it is capable of analyzing a modern system that features different failure modes, has diverse component failure distributions, considers the system’s operation environment data, and models different system configurations. The outcome of such analysis enables analysts to understand the operation and dynamics of a system holistically and aids in the implementation of appropriate risk mitigating strategies.


Edifor, E., Gordon, N., & Walker, M. (2021). Dependability Analysis Using Temporal Fault Trees and Monte Carlo Simulation. In W. Zamojski, J. Mazurkiewicz, J. Sugier, T. Walkowiak, & J. Kacprzyk (Eds.), Theory and Engineering of Dependable Computer Systems and Networks (86-96). Cham: Springer.

Acceptance Date Feb 24, 2021
Online Publication Date May 27, 2021
Publication Date 2021
Deposit Date Jun 2, 2021
Publicly Available Date May 28, 2023
Publisher Springer
Pages 86-96
Series Title Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing
Series Number 1389
Series ISSN 2194-5365
Book Title Theory and Engineering of Dependable Computer Systems and Networks
Chapter Number 9
ISBN 9783030767723
Keywords Temporal fault tree analysis, Dependability, Monte Carlo simulation
Public URL
Publisher URL
Additional Information First Online: 27 May 2021; Conference Acronym: DepCoS-RELCOMEX; Conference Name: International Conference on Dependability and Complex Systems; Conference City: Wrocław; Conference Country: Poland; Conference Year: 2021; Conference Start Date: 28 June 2021; Conference End Date: 2 July 2021; Conference Number: 16th; Conference ID: depcos2021; Conference URL:


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Copyright Statement
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021

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