Elementary modelling and behavioural analysis for emergency evacuations using social media

Fry, John; Binner, Jane

Abstract

Social media usage in evacuations and emergency management represents a rapidly expanding field of study. Our paper thus provides quantitative insight into a serious practical problem. Within this context a behavioural approach is key. We discuss when facilitators should consider model-based interventions amid further implications for disaster communication and emergency management. We model the behaviour of individual people by deriving optimal contrarian strategies. We formulate a Bayesian algorithm which enables the optimal evacuation to be conducted sequentially under worsening conditions.

Citation

Fry, J., & Binner, J. (2016). Elementary modelling and behavioural analysis for emergency evacuations using social media. European journal of operational research, 249(3), 1014-1023. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2015.05.049

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: May 18, 2015
• Online Publication Date: May 23, 2015
• Publication Date: Mar 16, 2016
• Deposit Date: Feb 4, 2022
• Publicly Available Date: Feb 9, 2022
• Journal: European journal of operational research
• Print ISSN: 0377-2217
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 249
• Issue: 3
• Pages: 1014-1023
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2015.05.049
• Keywords: Behavioural OR; OR in disaster relief; Decision analysis; Humanitarian logistics; Modelling
• Public URL: https://hull-repository.worktribe.com/output/3921014