A Variance Gamma model for Rugby Union matches

Fry, John; Smart, Oliver; Serbera, Jean-Philippe; Klar, Bernhard

Abstract

Amid much recent interest we discuss a Variance Gamma model for Rugby Union matches (applications to other sports are possible). Our model emerges as a special case of the recently introduced Gamma Difference distribution though there is a rich history of applied work using the Variance Gamma distribution – particularly in finance. Restricting to this special case adds analytical tractability and computational ease. Our three-dimensional model extends classical two-dimensional Poisson models for soccer. Analytical results are obtained for match outcomes, total score and the awarding of bonus points. Model calibration is demonstrated using historical results, bookmakers’ data and tournament simulations.

Citation

Fry, J., Smart, O., Serbera, J.-P., & Klar, B. (2021). A Variance Gamma model for Rugby Union matches. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 17(1), 67-75. https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2019-0088

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Mar 24, 2020
• Online Publication Date: May 5, 2020
• Publication Date: 2021-01
• Deposit Date: Feb 4, 2022
• Publicly Available Date: Feb 8, 2022
• Journal: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports
• Publisher: De Gruyter
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 17
• Issue: 1
• Pages: 67-75
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2019-0088
• Keywords: Football; Poisson distribution; Rugby Union; Soccer; Sports analytics; Variance Gamma distribution
• Public URL: https://hull-repository.worktribe.com/output/3921056
• Related Public URLs: https://bradscholars.brad.ac.uk/handle/10454/17767