An options pricing approach to election prediction

Fry, John; Burke, Matt

Abstract

Election forecasting errors appear chiefly due to the mode of extracting outcomes from the polled share of the vote.

Citation

Fry, J., & Burke, M. (2020). An options pricing approach to election prediction. Quantitative finance, 20(10), 1583-1589. https://doi.org/10.1080/14697688.2020.1757136

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Apr 10, 2020
• Online Publication Date: Jun 12, 2020
• Publication Date: 2020
• Deposit Date: Feb 4, 2022
• Journal: Quantitative finance
• Print ISSN: 1469-7688
• Publisher: Routledge
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 20
• Issue: 10
• Pages: 1583-1589
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14697688.2020.1757136
• Public URL: https://hull-repository.worktribe.com/output/3921088
• Related Public URLs: https://bradscholars.brad.ac.uk/handle/10454/17754