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Building confidence in models for multiple audiences: the modelling cascade

Howick, Susan; Eden, Colin; Ackermann, Fran; Williams, Terry

Authors

Susan Howick

Colin Eden

Fran Ackermann

Abstract

This paper reports on a model building process developed to enable multiple audiences, particularly non-experts, to appreciate the validity of the models being built and their outcomes. The process is a four stage reversible cascade. This cascade provides a structured, auditable/transparent, formalized process from "real world" interviews generating a rich qualitative model through two intermediate steps before arriving at a quantitative simulation model. There are a number of advantages of the cascade process including; achieving comprehensiveness, developing organizational learning, testing the veracity of multiple perspectives, modeling transparency, achieving common understanding across many audiences and promoting confidence building in the models. The paper, based on extensive work with organizations, discusses both the cascade process and its inherent benefits.

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date 2008-05
Print ISSN 0377-2217
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 186
Issue 3
Pages 1068-1083
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2007.02.027
Keywords Management Science and Operations Research; Modelling and Simulation; Information Systems and Management