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Crashes in real estate prices: causes and predictability

Xiao, Qin



Large swings in real estate prices that end in devastating crashes have been witnessed by many countries in the past two decades. To curtail the damage of these crashes, it is imperative that we understand their causes. This study proposes a model that associates market crashes with periodically collapsing speculative bubbles. Unlike the conventional literature, the identification of the bubble does not rely on assumptions about fundamentals, but on some 'fingerprints' of speculation. These fingerprints, theoretically, may also serve as predictors of market crashes. In practice, however, a number of factors may hinder the accuracy of the prediction. © 2010 Urban Studies Journal Limited.


Xiao, Q. (2010). Crashes in real estate prices: causes and predictability. Urban studies, 47(8), 1725-1744.

Journal Article Type Article
Online Publication Date Mar 11, 2010
Publication Date Jul 1, 2010
Print ISSN 0042-0980
Electronic ISSN 1360-063X
Publisher SAGE Publications
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 47
Issue 8
Pages 1725-1744
Keywords Environmental Science (miscellaneous); Urban Studies
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