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Crashes in real estate prices: causes and predictability

Xiao, Qin

Authors

Abstract

Large swings in real estate prices that end in devastating crashes have been witnessed by many countries in the past two decades. To curtail the damage of these crashes, it is imperative that we understand their causes. This study proposes a model that associates market crashes with periodically collapsing speculative bubbles. Unlike the conventional literature, the identification of the bubble does not rely on assumptions about fundamentals, but on some 'fingerprints' of speculation. These fingerprints, theoretically, may also serve as predictors of market crashes. In practice, however, a number of factors may hinder the accuracy of the prediction. © 2010 Urban Studies Journal Limited.

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date Jul 1, 2010
Print ISSN 0042-0980
Electronic ISSN 1360-063X
Publisher SAGE Publications
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 47
Issue 8
Pages 1725-1744
Institution Citation Xiao, Q. (2010). Crashes in real estate prices: causes and predictability. Urban studies, 47(8), 1725-1744. doi:10.1177/0042098009356482
DOI https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098009356482
Keywords Environmental Science (miscellaneous); Urban Studies
Publisher URL http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0042098009356482