A single risk assessment for the most common diseases of ageing, developed and validated on 10 cohort studies

Huque, Md Hamidul; Kootar, Scherazad; Kiely, Kim M.; Anderson, Craig S.; van Boxtel, Martin; Brodaty, Henry; Sachdev, Perminder S.; Carlson, Michelle; Fitzpatrick, Annette L.; Whitmer, Rachel A.; Kivipelto, Miia; Jorm, Louisa; Köhler, Sebastian; Lautenschlager, Nicola T.; Lopez, Oscar L.; Shaw, Jonathan E.; Matthews, Fiona E.; Peters, Ruth; Anstey, Kaarin J.

Abstract

BACKGROUND: We aimed to develop risk tools for dementia, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), and diabetes, for adults aged ≥ 65years using shared risk factors. METHODS: Data were obtained from 10 population-based cohorts (N = 41,755) with median follow-up time (years) for dementia, stroke, MI, and diabetes of 6.2, 7.0, 6.8, and 7.4, respectively. Disease-free participants at baseline were included, and 22 risk factors (sociodemographic, medical, lifestyle, laboratory biomarkers) were evaluated. Two risk tools (DemNCD and DemNCD-LR based on Fine and Gray sub-distribution and logistic regression [LR], respectively) were developed and validated. Predictive accuracies of these risk tools were assessed using Harrel's C-statistics and area under the curve (AUC) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Model calibration was conducted using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test along calibration plots. RESULTS: Both the DemNCD and DemNCD-LR resulted in similar predictive accuracy for each outcome. The overall AUC (95% CI) for dementia, stroke, MI, and diabetes risk tool were 0·68 (0·65, 0·70), 0·58 (0·54, 0·61), 0·65 (0·61, 0·68), and 0·68 (0·64, 0·72), respectively, for males. For females, these figures were 0·65 (0·63, 0·67), 0·55 (0·52, 0·57), 0·65 (0·62, 0·68), and 0·61 (0·57, 0·65). CONCLUSIONS: The DemNCD is the first tool to predict both dementia and multiple cardio-metabolic diseases using comprehensive risk factors and provided similar predictive accuracy to existing risk tools. It has similar predictive accuracy as tools designed for single outcomes in this age-group. DemNCD has the potential to be used in community and clinical settings as it includes self-reported and routinely available clinical measures.

Citation

Huque, M. H., Kootar, S., Kiely, K. M., Anderson, C. S., van Boxtel, M., Brodaty, H., Sachdev, P. S., Carlson, M., Fitzpatrick, A. L., Whitmer, R. A., Kivipelto, M., Jorm, L., Köhler, S., Lautenschlager, N. T., Lopez, O. L., Shaw, J. E., Matthews, F. E., Peters, R., & Anstey, K. J. (2024). A single risk assessment for the most common diseases of ageing, developed and validated on 10 cohort studies. BMC medicine, 22(1), Article 501. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-024-03711-6

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Oct 17, 2024
• Online Publication Date: Oct 31, 2024
• Publication Date: Oct 31, 2024
• Deposit Date: Nov 1, 2024
• Publicly Available Date: Nov 4, 2024
• Journal: BMC medicine
• Electronic ISSN: 1741-7015
• Publisher: Springer Verlag
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 22
• Issue: 1
• Article Number: 501
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-024-03711-6
• Keywords: Risk factors; Risk tool; Primary prevention; Dementia; Stroke; Diabetes; Heart attack; Risk prediction
• Public URL: https://hull-repository.worktribe.com/output/4908091