Dr Katharina Wollenberg Valero
GCRF- PPF 20 Forecasting Ebola Spillovers
People Involved
Dr Jane Bunting M.J.Bunting@hull.ac.uk
Reader in Geography
Dr Andrew Boa A.N.Boa@hull.ac.uk
Senior Lecturer
Dr Alexander Turner
Project Description
Since the 1970s, the Ebola virus recurrently emerges from the Afrotropics. The 2014 epidemic alone
affected around 40,000 people and cost over $5bn. As viruses cannot survive outside their host species, the transfer
from species that naturally harbor it to other susceptible species via so-called spillover events might involve the host’s
ecosystem. Consequently, properties of the ecosystem could be used to predict future spillovers. In 2017, we
provided a proof of concept for the idea that phenology characteristics such as flowering can be used for predicting
Ebola spillover events, which represents a cost-effective way to locally monitor conditions favourable for spillovers.
However, phenology monitoring is underdeveloped in West and Central Africa. Here, we will extend the phenology
model with more ubiquitously available pollen data, and scope the implementation of a forecasting system based on
pollen count in Lagos, Nigeria, a large city affected by the 2014 Ebola epidemic.
| Status | Project Complete |
|---|---|
| Value | £19,157.00 |
| Project Dates | Feb 1, 2018 - Jul 31, 2018 |
| Partner Organisations | University of Lagos Cross River State Forestry Commission Bethune-Cookman University |
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