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Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Roth, Gregory A; Abate, Degu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abay, Solomon M; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbasi, Nooshin; Abbastabar, Hedayat; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abdela, Jemal; Abdelalim, Ahmed; Abdollahpour, Ibrahim; Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi; Abebe, Haftom Temesgen; Abebe, Molla; Abebe, Zegeye; Abejie, Ayenew Negesse; Abera, Semaw F; Abil, Olifan Zewdie; Abraha, Haftom Niguse; Abrham, Aklilu Roba; Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal; Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou; Acharya, Dilaram; Adamu, Abdu A; Adebayo, Oladimeji M; Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji; Adekanmbi, Victor; Adetokunboh, Olatunji O; Adhena, Beyene Meressa; Adib, Mina G; Admasie, Amha; Afshin, Ashkan; Agarwal, Gina; Agesa, Kareha M; Agrawal, Anurag; Agrawal, Sutapa; Ahmadi, Alireza; Ahmadi, Mehdi; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir; Ahmed, Sayem; Aichour, Amani Nidhal; Aichour, Ibtihel; Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine; Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil; Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola; Akseer, Nadia; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Al-Eyadhy, Ayman; Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M; Alahdab, Fares; Alam, Khurshid...

Authors

Gregory A Roth

Degu Abate

Kalkidan Hassen Abate

Solomon M Abay

Cristiana Abbafati

Nooshin Abbasi

Hedayat Abbastabar

Foad Abd-Allah

Jemal Abdela

Ahmed Abdelalim

Ibrahim Abdollahpour

Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader

Haftom Temesgen Abebe

Molla Abebe

Zegeye Abebe

Ayenew Negesse Abejie

Semaw F Abera

Olifan Zewdie Abil

Haftom Niguse Abraha

Aklilu Roba Abrham

Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad

Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi

Dilaram Acharya

Abdu A Adamu

Oladimeji M Adebayo

Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin

Victor Adekanmbi

Olatunji O Adetokunboh

Beyene Meressa Adhena

Mina G Adib

Amha Admasie

Ashkan Afshin

Gina Agarwal

Kareha M Agesa

Anurag Agrawal

Sutapa Agrawal

Alireza Ahmadi

Mehdi Ahmadi

Muktar Beshir Ahmed

Sayem Ahmed

Amani Nidhal Aichour

Ibtihel Aichour

Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour

Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari

Rufus Olusola Akinyemi

Nadia Akseer

Ziyad Al-Aly

Ayman Al-Eyadhy

Rajaa M Al-Raddadi

Fares Alahdab

Khurshid Alam

Tahiya Alam

Animut Alebel

Kefyalew Addis Alene

Mehran Alijanzadeh

Reza Alizadeh-Navaei

Syed Mohamed Aljunid

Ala'a Alkerwi

François Alla

Peter Allebeck

Jordi Alonso

Khalid Altirkawi

Nelson Alvis-Guzman

Azmeraw T Amare

Leopold N Aminde

Erfan Amini

Walid Ammar

Yaw Ampem Amoako

Nahla Hamed Anber

Catalina Liliana Andrei

Sofia Androudi

Megbaru Debalkie Animut

Mina Anjomshoa

Hossein Ansari

Mustafa Geleto Ansha

Carl Abelardo T Antonio

Palwasha Anwari

Olatunde Aremu

Johan Ärnlöv

Amit Arora

Monika Arora

Al Artaman

Krishna K Aryal

Hamid Asayesh

Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw

Zerihun Ataro

Suleman Atique

Sachin R Atre

Marcel Ausloos

Euripide F G A Avokpaho

Ashish Awasthi

Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla

Yohanes Ayele

Rakesh Ayer

Peter S Azzopardi

Arefeh Babazadeh

Umar Bacha

Hamid Badali

Alaa Badawi

Ayele Geleto Bali

Katherine E Ballesteros

Maciej Banach

Kajori Banerjee

Marlena S Bannick

Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub

Miguel A Barboza

Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo

Till Winfried Bärnighausen

Simon Barquera

Lope H Barrero

Quique Bassat

Sanjay Basu

Bernhard T Baune

Habtamu Wondifraw Baynes

Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi

Neeraj Bedi

Ettore Beghi

Masoud Behzadifar

Meysam Behzadifar

Yannick Béjot

Bayu Begashaw Bekele

Abate Bekele Belachew

Ezra Belay

Yihalem Abebe Belay

Michelle L Bell

Aminu K Bello

Derrick A Bennett

Isabela M Bensenor

Adam E Berman

Eduardo Bernabe

Robert S Bernstein

Gregory J Bertolacci

Mircea Beuran

Tina Beyranvand

Ashish Bhalla

Suraj Bhattarai

Soumyadeeep Bhaumik

Zulfiqar A Bhutta

Belete Biadgo

Molly H Biehl

Ali Bijani

Boris Bikbov

Ver Bilano

Nigus Bililign

Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed

Donal Bisanzio

Tuhin Biswas

Brigette F Blacker

Berrak Bora Basara

Rohan Borschmann

Cristina Bosetti

Kayvan Bozorgmehr

Oliver J Brady

Luisa C Brant

Carol Brayne

Alexandra Brazinova

Nicholas J K Breitborde

Hermann Brenner

Paul Svitil Briant

Gabrielle Britton

Traolach Brugha

Reinhard Busse

Zahid A Butt

Charlton S K H Callender

Ismael R Campos-Nonato

Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon

Jorge Cano

Mate Car

Rosario Cárdenas

Giulia Carreras

Juan J Carrero

Austin Carter

Félix Carvalho

Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela

Jacqueline Castillo Rivas

Chris D Castle

Clara Castro

Franz Castro

Ferrán Catalá-López

Ester Cerin

Yazan Chaiah

Jung-Chen Chang

Fiona J Charlson

Pankaj Chaturvedi

Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang

Odgerel Chimed-Ochir

Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa

Abdulaal Chitheer

Rajiv Chowdhury

Hanne Christensen

Devasahayam J Christopher

Sheng-Chia Chung

Flavia M Cicuttini

Liliana G Ciobanu

Massimo Cirillo

Aaron J Cohen

Leslie Trumbull Cooper

Paolo Angelo Cortesi

Monica Cortinovis

Ewerton Cousin

Benjamin C Cowie

Michael H Criqui

Elizabeth A Cromwell

Christopher Stephen Crowe

John A Crump

Matthew Cunningham

Alemneh Kabeta Daba

Abel Fekadu Dadi

Lalit Dandona

Rakhi Dandona

Anh Kim Dang

Paul I Dargan

Ahmad Daryani

Siddharth K Das

Rajat Das Gupta

José Das Neves

Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa

Aditya Prasad Dash

Adrian C Davis

Nicole Davis Weaver

Dragos Virgil Davitoiu

Kairat Davletov

Fernando Pio De La Hoz

Jan-Walter De Neve

Meaza Girma Degefa

Louisa Degenhardt

Tizta T Degfie

Selina Deiparine

Gebre Teklemariam Demoz

Balem Betsu Demtsu

Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez

Kebede Deribe

Nikolaos Dervenis

Don C Des Jarlais

Getenet Ayalew Dessie

Subhojit Dey

Samath D Dharmaratne

Daniel Dicker

Mesfin Tadese Dinberu

Eric L Ding

M Ashworth Dirac

Shirin Djalalinia

Klara Dokova

David Teye Doku

Christl A Donnelly

E Ray Dorsey

Pratik P Doshi

Dirk Douwes-Schultz

Kerrie E Doyle

Tim R Driscoll

Manisha Dubey

Eleonora Dubljanin

Eyasu Ejeta Duken

Bruce B Duncan

Andre R Duraes

Hedyeh Ebrahimi

Soheil Ebrahimpour

Dumessa Edessa

David Edvardsson

Anne Elise Eggen

Charbel El Bcheraoui

Maysaa El Sayed Zaki

Ziad El-Khatib

Hajer Elkout

Christian Lycke Ellingsen

Matthias Endres

Aman Yesuf Endries

Benjamin Er

Holly E Erskine

Babak Eshrati

Sharareh Eskandarieh

Reza Esmaeili

Alireza Esteghamati

Mahdi Fakhar

Hamed Fakhim

Mahbobeh Faramarzi

Mohammad Fareed

Farzaneh Farhadi

Carla Sofia E sá Farinha

Andre Faro

Maryam S Farvid

Farshad Farzadfar

Mohammad Hosein Farzaei

Valery L Feigin

Andrea B Feigl

Netsanet Fentahun

Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad

Eduarda Fernandes

Joao C Fernandes

Alize J Ferrari

Garumma Tolu Feyissa

Irina Filip

Samuel Finegold

Florian Fischer

Christina Fitzmaurice

Nataliya A Foigt

Kyle J Foreman

Carla Fornari

Tahvi D Frank

Takeshi Fukumoto

John E Fuller

Nancy Fullman

Thomas Fürst

João M Furtado

Neal D Futran

Silvano Gallus

Alberto L Garcia-Basteiro

Miguel A Garcia-Gordillo

William M Gardner

Abadi Kahsu Gebre

Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot

Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin

Bereket Gebremichael

Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael

Tilayie Feto Gelano

Johanna M Geleijnse

Ricard Genova-Maleras

Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo

Peter W Gething

Kebede Embaye Gezae

Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami

Reza Ghadimi

Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani

Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman

Mamata Ghimire

Katherine B Gibney

Paramjit Singh Gill

Tiffany K Gill

Richard F Gillum

Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi

Maurice Giroud

Giorgia Giussani

Shifalika Goenka

Ellen M Goldberg

Srinivas Goli

Hector Gómez-Dantés

Philimon N Gona

Sameer Vali Gopalani

Taren M Gorman

Atsushi Goto

Alessandra C Goulart

Elena V Gnedovskaya

Ayman Grada

Giuseppe Grosso

Harish Chander Gugnani

Andre Luiz Sena Guimaraes

Yuming Guo

Prakash C Gupta

Rahul Gupta

Rajeev Gupta

Tanush Gupta

Reyna Alma Gutiérrez

Bishal Gyawali

Juanita A Haagsma

Nima Hafezi-Nejad

Tekleberhan B Hagos

Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis

Gessessew Bugssa Hailu

Arvin Haj-Mirzaian

Arya Haj-Mirzaian

Randah R Hamadeh

Samer Hamidi

Alexis J Handal

Graeme J Hankey

Hilda L Harb

Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan

Josep Maria Haro

Mehedi Hasan

Hadi Hassankhani

Hamid Yimam Hassen

Rasmus Havmoeller

Roderick J Hay

Simon I Hay

Yihua He

Akbar Hedayatizadeh-Omran

Mohamed I Hegazy

Behzad Heibati

Mohsen Heidari

Delia Hendrie

Andualem Henok

Nathaniel J Henry

Claudiu Herteliu

Fatemeh Heydarpour

Pouria Heydarpour

Sousan Heydarpour

Desalegn Tsegaw Hibstu

Hans W Hoek

Michael K Hole

Enayatollah Homaie Rad

Praveen Hoogar

H Dean Hosgood

Seyed Mostafa Hosseini

Mehdi Hosseinzadeh

Mihaela Hostiuc

Sorin Hostiuc

Peter J Hotez

Damian G Hoy

Thomas Hsiao

Guoqing Hu

John J Huang

Abdullatif Husseini

Mohammedaman Mama Hussen

Susan Hutfless

Bulat Idrisov

Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi

Usman Iqbal

Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani

Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine

Nazrul Islam

Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam

Farhad Islami

Kathryn H Jacobsen

Leila Jahangiry

Nader Jahanmehr

Sudhir Kumar Jain

Mihajlo Jakovljevic

Moti Tolera Jalu

Spencer L James

Mehdi Javanbakht

Achala Upendra Jayatilleke

Panniyammakal Jeemon

Kathy J Jenkins

Ravi Prakash Jha

Vivekanand Jha

Catherine O Johnson

Sarah C Johnson

Jost B Jonas

Ankur Joshi

Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak

Suresh Banayya Jungari

Mikk Jürisson

Zubair Kabir

Rajendra Kadel

Amaha Kahsay

Rizwan Kalani

Manoochehr Karami

Behzad Karami Matin

André Karch

Corine Karema

Hamidreza Karimi-Sari

Amir Kasaeian

Dessalegn H Kassa

Getachew Mullu Kassa

Tesfaye Dessale Kassa

Nicholas J Kassebaum

Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi

Anil Kaul

Zhila Kazemi

Ali Kazemi Karyani

Dhruv Satish Kazi

Adane Teshome Kefale

Peter Njenga Keiyoro

Grant Rodgers Kemp

Andre Pascal Kengne

Andre Keren

Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran

Yousef Saleh Khader

Behzad Khafaei

Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie

Alireza Khajavi

Nauman Khalid

Ibrahim A Khalil

Ejaz Ahmad Khan

Muhammad Shahzeb Khan

Muhammad Ali Khan

Young-Ho Khang

Mona M Khater

Abdullah T Khoja

Ardeshir Khosravi

Mohammad Hossein Khosravi

Jagdish Khubchandani

Aliasghar A Kiadaliri

Getiye D Kibret

Zelalem Teklemariam Kidanemariam

Daniel N Kiirithio

Daniel Kim

Young-Eun Kim

Yun Jin Kim

Ruth W Kimokoti

Yohannes Kinfu

Adnan Kisa

Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek

Mika Kivimäki

Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen

Jonathan M Kocarnik

Sonali Kochhar

Yoshihiro Kokubo

Tufa Kolola

Jacek A Kopec

Parvaiz A Koul

Ai Koyanagi

Michael A Kravchenko

Kewal Krishan

Barthelemy Kuate Defo

Burcu Kucuk Bicer

G Anil Kumar

Manasi Kumar

Pushpendra Kumar

Michael J Kutz

Igor Kuzin

Hmwe Hmwe Kyu

Deepesh P Lad

Sheetal D Lad

Alessandra Lafranconi

Dharmesh Kumar Lal

Ratilal Lalloo

Tea Lallukka

Jennifer O Lam

Faris Hasan Lami

Van C Lansingh

Sonia Lansky

Heidi J Larson

Arman Latifi

Kathryn Mei-Ming Lau

Jeffrey V Lazarus

Georgy Lebedev

Paul H Lee

James Leigh

Mostafa Leili

Cheru Tesema Leshargie

Shanshan Li

Yichong Li

Juan Liang

Lee-Ling Lim

Stephen S Lim

Miteku Andualem Limenih

Shai Linn

Shiwei Liu

Yang Liu

Rakesh Lodha

Chris Lonsdale

Alan D Lopez

Stefan Lorkowski

Paulo A Lotufo

Rafael Lozano

Raimundas Lunevicius

Stefan Ma

Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan

Mark T Mackay

Jennifer H MacLachlan

Emilie R Maddison

Fabiana Madotto

Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek

Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek

Dhaval P Maghavani

Marek Majdan

Reza Majdzadeh

Azeem Majeed

Reza Malekzadeh

Deborah Carvalho Malta

Ana-Laura Manda

Luiz Garcia Mandarano-Filho

Helena Manguerra

Mohammad Ali Mansournia

Chabila Christopher Mapoma

Dadi Marami

Joemer C Maravilla

Wagner Marcenes

Laurie Marczak

Ashley Marks

Guy B Marks

Gabriel Martinez

Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo

Ira Martopullo

Winfried März

Melvin B Marzan

Joseph R Masci

Benjamin Ballard Massenburg

Manu Raj Mathur

Prashant Mathur

Richard Matzopoulos

Pallab K Maulik

Mohsen Mazidi

Colm McAlinden

John J McGrath

Martin McKee

Brian J McMahon

Suresh Mehata

Man Mohan Mehndiratta

Ravi Mehrotra

Kala M Mehta

Varshil Mehta

Tefera C Mekonnen

Addisu Melese

Mulugeta Melku

Peter T N Memiah

Ziad A Memish

Walter Mendoza

Desalegn Tadese Mengistu

Getnet Mengistu

George A Mensah

Seid Tiku Mereta

Atte Meretoja

Tuomo J Meretoja

Tomislav Mestrovic

Haftay Berhane Mezgebe

Bartosz Miazgowski

Tomasz Miazgowski

Anoushka I Millear

Ted R Miller

Molly Katherine Miller-Petrie

G K Mini

Parvaneh Mirabi

Mojde Mirarefin

Andreea Mirica

Erkin M Mirrakhimov

Awoke Temesgen Misganaw

Habtamu Mitiku

Babak Moazen

Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad

Moslem Mohammadi

Noushin Mohammadifard

Mohammed A Mohammed

Shafiu Mohammed

Viswanathan Mohan

Ali H Mokdad

Mariam Molokhia

Lorenzo Monasta

Ghobad Moradi

Maziar Moradi-Lakeh

Mehdi Moradinazar

Paula Moraga

Lidia Morawska

Ilais Moreno Velásquez

Joana Morgado-Da-Costa

Shane Douglas Morrison

Marilita M Moschos

Simin Mouodi

Seyyed Meysam Mousavi

Kindie Fentahun Muchie

Ulrich Otto Mueller

Satinath Mukhopadhyay

Kate Muller

John Everett Mumford

Jonah Musa

Kamarul Imran Musa

Ghulam Mustafa

Saravanan Muthupandian

Jean B Nachega

Gabriele Nagel

Aliya Naheed

Azin Nahvijou

Gurudatta Naik

Sanjeev Nair

Farid Najafi

Luigi Naldi

Hae Sung Nam

Vinay Nangia

Jobert Richie Nansseu

Bruno Ramos Nascimento

Gopalakrishnan Natarajan

Nahid Neamati

Ionut Negoi

Ruxandra Irina Negoi

Subas Neupane

Charles R J Newton

Frida N Ngalesoni

Josephine W Ngunjiri

Anh Quynh Nguyen

Grant Nguyen

Ha Thu Nguyen

Huong Thanh Nguyen

Long Hoang Nguyen

Minh Nguyen

Trang Huyen Nguyen

Emma Nichols

Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum

Yirga Legesse Nirayo

Molly R Nixon

Nomonde Nolutshungu

Shuhei Nomura

Ole F Norheim

Mehdi Noroozi

Bo Norrving

Jean Jacques Noubiap

Hamid Reza Nouri

Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh

Mohammad Reza Nowroozi

Peter S Nyasulu

Christopher M Odell

Richard Ofori-Asenso

Felix Akpojene Ogbo

In-Hwan Oh

Olanrewaju Oladimeji

Andrew T Olagunju

Pedro R Olivares

Helen Elizabeth Olsen

Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya

Jacob Olusegun Olusanya

Kanyin L Ong

Sok King Sk Ong

Eyal Oren

Heather M Orpana

Alberto Ortiz

Justin R Ortiz

Stanislav S Otstavnov

Simon Øverland

Mayowa Ojo Owolabi

Raziye Özdemir

Mahesh P A

Rosana Pacella

Smita Pakhale

Abhijit P Pakhare

Amir H Pakpour

Adrian Pana

Songhomitra Panda-Jonas

Jeyaraj Durai Pandian

Andrea Parisi

Eun-Kee Park

Charles D H Parry

Hadi Parsian

Shanti Patel

Sanghamitra Pati

George C Patton

Vishnupriya Rao Paturi

Katherine R Paulson

Alexandre Pereira

David M Pereira

Norberto Perico

Konrad Pesudovs

Max Petzold

Michael R Phillips

Frédéric B Piel

David M Pigott

Julian David Pillay

Meghdad Pirsaheb

Farhad Pishgar

Suzanne Polinder

Maarten J Postma

Akram Pourshams

Hossein Poustchi

Ashwini Pujar

Swayam Prakash

Narayan Prasad

Caroline A Purcell

Mostafa Qorbani

Hedley Quintana

D Alex Quistberg

Kirankumar Waman Rade

Amir Radfar

Anwar Rafay

Alireza Rafiei

Fakher Rahim

Kazem Rahimi

Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar

Mahfuzar Rahman

Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman

Muhammad Aziz Rahman

Rajesh Kumar Rai

Sasa Rajsic

Usha Ram

Chhabi Lal Ranabhat

Prabhat Ranjan

Puja C Rao

David Laith Rawaf

Salman Rawaf

Christian Razo-García

K Srinath Reddy

Robert C Reiner

Marissa B Reitsma

Giuseppe Remuzzi

Andre M N Renzaho

Serge Resnikoff

Satar Rezaei

Shahab Rezaeian

Mohammad Sadegh Rezai

Seyed Mohammad Riahi

Antonio Luiz P Ribeiro

Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas

Kedir Teji Roba

Nicholas L S Roberts

Stephen R Robinson

Leonardo Roever

Luca Ronfani

Gholamreza Roshandel

Ali Rostami

Dietrich Rothenbacher

Ambuj Roy

Enrico Rubagotti

Perminder S Sachdev

Basema Saddik

Ehsan Sadeghi

Hosein Safari

Mahdi Safdarian

Sare Safi

Saeid Safiri

Rajesh Sagar

Amirhossein Sahebkar

Mohammad Ali Sahraian

Nasir Salam

Joseph S Salama

Payman Salamati

Raphael De Freitas Saldanha

Zikria Saleem

Yahya Salimi

Sundeep Santosh Salvi

Inbal Salz

Evanson Zondani Sambala

Abdallah M Samy

Juan Sanabria

Maria Dolores Sanchez-Niño

Damian Francesco Santomauro

Itamar S Santos

João Vasco Santos

Milena M Santric Milicevic

Bruno Piassi Sao Jose

Abdur Razzaque Sarker

Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez

Nizal Sarrafzadegan

Benn Sartorius

Shahabeddin Sarvi

Brijesh Sathian

Maheswar Satpathy

Arundhati R Sawant

Monika Sawhney

Sonia Saxena

Mehdi Sayyah

Elke Schaeffner

Maria Inês Schmidt

Ione J C Schneider

Ben Schöttker

Aletta Elisabeth Schutte

David C Schwebel

Falk Schwendicke

James G Scott

Mario Sekerija

Sadaf G Sepanlou

Edson Serván-Mori

Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi

Hosein Shabaninejad

Katya Anne Shackelford

Azadeh Shafieesabet

Mehdi Shahbazi

Amira A Shaheen

Masood Ali Shaikh

Mehran Shams-Beyranvand

Mohammadbagher Shamsi

Morteza Shamsizadeh

Kiomars Sharafi

Mehdi Sharif

Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini

Rajesh Sharma

Jun She

Aziz Sheikh

Peilin Shi

Mekonnen Sisay Shiferaw

Mika Shigematsu

Rahman Shiri

Reza Shirkoohi

Ivy Shiue

Farhad Shokraneh

Mark G Shrime

Si Si

Soraya Siabani

Tariq J Siddiqi

Inga Dora Sigfusdottir

Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir

Donald H Silberberg

Diego Augusto Santos Silva

João Pedro Silva

Natacha Torres Da Silva

Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira

Jasvinder A Singh

Narinder Pal Singh

Prashant Kumar Singh

Virendra Singh

Dhirendra Narain Sinha

Karen Sliwa

Mari Smith

Badr Hasan Sobaih

Soheila Sobhani

Eugène Sobngwi

Samir S Soneji

Moslem Soofi

Reed J D Sorensen

Joan B Soriano

Luciano A Sposato

Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy

Vinay Srinivasan

Jeffrey D Stanaway

Vladimir I Starodubov

Vasiliki Stathopoulou

Dan J Stein

Caitlyn Steiner

Leo G Stewart

Mark A Stokes

Michelle L Subart

Agus Sudaryanto

Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan

Patrick John Sur

Ipsita Sutradhar

Bryan L Sykes

P N Sylaja

Dillon O Sylte

Cassandra E I Szoeke

Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos

Takahiro Tabuchi

Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla

Ken Takahashi

Nikhil Tandon

Segen Gebremeskel Tassew

Nuno Taveira

Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi

Tigist Gashaw Tekalign

Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle

Mohamad-Hani Temsah

Omar Temsah

Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi

Manaye Yihune Teshale

Belay Tessema

Gizachew Assefa Tessema

Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan

Sathish Thirunavukkarasu

Nihal Thomas

Amanda G Thrift

George D Thurston

Binyam Tilahun

Quyen G To

Ruoyan Tobe-Gai

Marcello Tonelli

Roman Topor-Madry

Anna E Torre

Miguel Tortajada-Girbés

Mathilde Touvier

Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone

Bach Xuan Tran

Khanh Bao Tran

Suryakant Tripathi

Christopher E Troeger

Thomas Clement Truelsen

Nu Thi Truong

Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik

Derrick Tsoi

Lorainne Tudor Car

E Murat Tuzcu

Stefanos Tyrovolas

Kingsley N Ukwaja

Irfan Ullah

Eduardo A Undurraga

Rachel L Updike

Muhammad Shariq Usman

Olalekan A Uthman

Selen Begüm Uzun

Muthiah Vaduganathan

Afsane Vaezi

Gaurang Vaidya

Pascual R Valdez

Elena Varavikova

Tommi Juhani Vasankari

Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian

Santos Villafaina

Francesco S Violante

Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov

Vasily Vlassov

Stein Emil Vollset

Theo Vos

Gregory R Wagner

Fasil Shiferaw Wagnew

Yasir Waheed

Mitchell Taylor Wallin

Judd L Walson

Yanping Wang

Yuan-Pang Wang

Molla Mesele Wassie

Elisabete Weiderpass

Robert G Weintraub

Fitsum Weldegebreal

Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs

Andrea Werdecker

Adhena Ayaliew Werkneh

T Eoin West

Ronny Westerman

Harvey A Whiteford

Justyna Widecka

Lauren B Wilner

Shadrach Wilson

Andrea Sylvia Winkler

Charles Shey Wiysonge

Charles D A Wolfe

Shouling Wu

Yun-Chun Wu

Grant M A Wyper

Denis Xavier

Gelin Xu

Simon Yadgir

Ali Yadollahpour

Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari

Bereket Yakob

Lijing L Yan

Yuichiro Yano

Mehdi Yaseri

Yasin Jemal Yasin

Gökalp Kadri Yentür

Alex Yeshaneh

Ebrahim M Yimer

Paul Yip

Biruck Desalegn Yirsaw

Engida Yisma

Naohiro Yonemoto

Gerald Yonga

Seok-Jun Yoon

Marcel Yotebieng

Mustafa Z Younis

Mahmoud Yousefifard

Chuanhua Yu

Vesna Zadnik

Zoubida Zaidi

Sojib Bin Zaman

Mohammad Zamani

Zohreh Zare

Ayalew Jejaw Zeleke

Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe

Anthony Lin Zhang

Kai Zhang

Maigeng Zhou

Sanjay Zodpey

Liesl Joanna Zuhlke

Mohsen Naghavi

Christopher J L Murray



Contributors

Abstract

Background
Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.
Methods
The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries—Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.
Findings
At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5–74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9–19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7–8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5–23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20–8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0–8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0–24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1–33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5–4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2–15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9–59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000–289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000–363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8–148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2–40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2–36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990—neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases—were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.
Interpretation
Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade.

Citation

Roth, G. A., Abate, D., Abate, K. H., Abay, S. M., Abbafati, C., Abbasi, N., Abbastabar, H., Abd-Allah, F., Abdela, J., Abdelalim, A., Abdollahpour, I., Abdulkader, R. S., Abebe, H. T., Abebe, M., Abebe, Z., Abejie, A. N., Abera, S. F., Abil, O. Z., Abraha, H. N., Abrham, A. R., …Murray, C. J. L. (2018). Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet, 392(10159), 1736-1788. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736%2818%2932203-7

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Nov 8, 2018
Online Publication Date Nov 8, 2018
Publication Date Nov 10, 2018
Deposit Date May 15, 2019
Publicly Available Date May 17, 2019
Journal The Lancet
Print ISSN 0140-6736
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 392
Issue 10159
Pages 1736-1788
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736%2818%2932203-7
Keywords General Medicine
Public URL https://hull-repository.worktribe.com/output/1748312
Publisher URL https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673618322037?via%3Dihub
Additional Information Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
Contract Date May 17, 2019

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Copyright Statement
© 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.






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