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How did order-flow impact bond prices during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis?

Lin, Zhongguo; Hamill, Philip A.; Li, Youwei; Sun, Zhuowei; Waterworth, James

Authors

Zhongguo Lin

Philip A. Hamill

Zhuowei Sun

James Waterworth



Abstract

The impact of trades on price dynamics in the European sovereign debt markets is of significant importance to policy makers and market participants. This paper uses high-frequency quote and transaction data from the MTS European sovereign bond inter-dealer platform to investigate price-order-flow dynamics from July 2005 until December 2011 for Germany, France, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Spain and Greece. We find that order-flow had a larger impact on quote revision in a relatively low-intensity trading environment than in a relatively high-intensity trading environment implying that informed traders should only execute in low-intensity trading environments when they value immediacy over discretion. This analysis is consistent with the limited prior literature for European debt markets. Our analysis indicates that this relationship persists during turbulent market conditions. Also, we find that the impact of order-flow on subsequent trades was larger during periods of high-trading intensity implying that market participants use order splitting trading strategies.

Citation

Lin, Z., Hamill, P. A., Li, Y., Sun, Z., & Waterworth, J. (2020). How did order-flow impact bond prices during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis?. International Review of Economics and Finance, 67, 13-24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2019.12.008

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Dec 22, 2019
Online Publication Date Dec 30, 2019
Publication Date 2020-05
Deposit Date Jan 2, 2020
Publicly Available Date Nov 30, -0001
Journal International Review of Economics and Finance
Print ISSN 1059-0560
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 67
Pages 13-24
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2019.12.008
Keywords Order-flow; Price impact; Trading intensity; Sovereign bonds
Public URL https://hull-repository.worktribe.com/output/3340516
Publisher URL https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056019309001?via%3Dihub