A method to estimate trends in distributions of 1 min rain rates from numerical weather prediction data

Paulson, Kevin; Ranatunga, Channa; Bellerby, Timothy

Abstract

It is known that the rain rate exceeded 0.01% of the time in the UK has experienced an increasing trend over the last 20 years. It is very likely that rain fade and outage experience a similar trend. This paper presents a globally applicable method to estimate these trends, based on the widely accepted Salonen-Poiares Baptista model. The input data are parameters easily extracted from numerical weather prediction reanalysis data. The method is verified using rain gauge data from the UK, and the predicted trend slopes of 0.01% exceeded rain rate are presented on a global grid.

Citation

Paulson, K., Ranatunga, C., & Bellerby, T. (2015). A method to estimate trends in distributions of 1 min rain rates from numerical weather prediction data. Radio science, 50(9), 931-940. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015RS005651

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Sep 3, 2015
• Online Publication Date: Sep 7, 2015
• Publication Date: Oct 20, 2015
• Deposit Date: Oct 23, 2015
• Publicly Available Date: Nov 23, 2017
• Journal: Radio science
• Print ISSN: 0048-6604
• Publisher: American Geophysical Union
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 50
• Issue: 9
• Pages: 931-940
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015RS005651
• Keywords: Rain rate; Weather prediction; Rain fade; Salonen-Poiares Baptista model
• Public URL: https://hull-repository.worktribe.com/output/380048
• Publisher URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015RS005651/abstract
• Additional Information: Copy of article first published in: Radio science, 2015, v.50, issue 9.
• Contract Date: Nov 23, 2017