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A method to estimate trends in distributions of 1 min rain rates from numerical weather prediction data

Paulson, Kevin S.; Paulson, Kevin; Ranatunga, Channa; Bellerby, Timothy

Authors

Kevin S. Paulson

Channa Ranatunga

Abstract

It is known that the rain rate exceeded 0.01% of the time in the UK has experienced an increasing trend over the last 20 years. It is very likely that rain fade and outage experience a similar trend. This paper presents a globally applicable method to estimate these trends, based on the widely accepted Salonen-Poiares Baptista model. The input data are parameters easily extracted from numerical weather prediction reanalysis data. The method is verified using rain gauge data from the UK, and the predicted trend slopes of 0.01% exceeded rain rate are presented on a global grid.

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date Oct 20, 2015
Journal Radio science
Print ISSN 0048-6604
Electronic ISSN 1944-799X
Publisher American Geophysical Union
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 50
Issue 9
Pages 931-940
Institution Citation Paulson, K., Ranatunga, C., & Bellerby, T. (2015). A method to estimate trends in distributions of 1 min rain rates from numerical weather prediction data. Radio science, 50(9), 931-940. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015RS005651
DOI https://doi.org/10.1002/2015RS005651
Keywords Rain rate; Weather prediction; Rain fade; Salonen-Poiares Baptista model
Publisher URL http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015RS005651/abstract
Additional Information Copy of article first published in: Radio science, 2015, v.50, issue 9.

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