A method to estimate trends in distributions of 1 min rain rates from numerical weather prediction data

Paulson, Kevin S.; Paulson, Kevin; Ranatunga, Channa; Bellerby, Timothy

Abstract

It is known that the rain rate exceeded 0.01% of the time in the UK has experienced an increasing trend over the last 20 years. It is very likely that rain fade and outage experience a similar trend. This paper presents a globally applicable method to estimate these trends, based on the widely accepted Salonen-Poiares Baptista model. The input data are parameters easily extracted from numerical weather prediction reanalysis data. The method is verified using rain gauge data from the UK, and the predicted trend slopes of 0.01% exceeded rain rate are presented on a global grid.

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Publication Date: Oct 20, 2015
• Journal: Radio science
• Print ISSN: 0048-6604
• Electronic ISSN: 1944-799X
• Publisher: American Geophysical Union
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 50
• Issue: 9
• Pages: 931-940
• APA6 Citation: Paulson, K., Ranatunga, C., & Bellerby, T. (2015). A method to estimate trends in distributions of 1 min rain rates from numerical weather prediction data. Radio science, 50(9), 931-940. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015RS005651
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015RS005651
• Keywords: Rain rate; Weather prediction; Rain fade; Salonen-Poiares Baptista model
• Publisher URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015RS005651/abstract
• Additional Information: Copy of article first published in: Radio science, 2015, v.50, issue 9.