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Blue Nile runoff sensitivity to climate change

Nawaz, Rizwan; Bellerby, Timothy; Sayed, Mohamed; Elshamy, Mohamed


Rizwan Nawaz

Mohamed Sayed

Mohamed Elshamy


This study describes implementation of hydrological climate change impact assessment tool utilising a combination of statistical spatiotemporal downscaling and an operational hydrological model known as the Nile Forecasting System. A spatial rainfall generator was used to produce high-resolution (daily, 20km) gridded rainfall data required by the distributed hydrological model from monthly GCM outputs. The combined system was used to assess the sensitivity of upper Blue Nile flows at Diem flow gauging station to changes in future rainfall during the June-September rainy season based on output from three GCMs. The assessment also incorporated future evapotranspiration changes over the basin. The climate change scenarios derived in this study were broadly in line with other studies, with the majority of scenarios indicating wetter conditions in the future. Translating the impacts into runoff in the basin showed increased future mean flows, although these would be offset to some degree by rising evapotranspiration. Impacts on extreme runoff indicated the possibility of more severe floods in future. These are likely to be exacerbated by land-use changes including overgrazing, deforestation, and improper farming practices. Blue Nile basin flood managers therefore need to continue to prepare for the possibility of more frequent floods by adopting a range of measures to minimise loss of life and guard against other flood damage.


Nawaz, R., Bellerby, T., Sayed, M., & Elshamy, M. (2010). Blue Nile runoff sensitivity to climate change. The open hydrology journal, 4(Special issue), 137 - 151.

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date May 28, 2010
Publication Date Dec 30, 2010
Publicly Available Date Sep 28, 2018
Print ISSN 1874-3781
Publisher Bentham Science Publishers
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 4
Issue Special issue
Pages 137 - 151
Public URL


Article.pdf (1.9 Mb)

Copyright Statement
© Nawaz et al.; Licensee Bentham Open.
This is an open access article licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License
( which permits unrestricted, non-commercial use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the
work is properly cited.

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