Skip to main content

Research Repository

Advanced Search

Primary palliative care in Japan: needs estimation and projections - national database study with international comparisons

Ito, Masami; Aoyama, Maho; Murtagh, Fliss E.M.; Miyashita, Mitsunori

Authors

Masami Ito

Maho Aoyama

Mitsunori Miyashita



Abstract

Objectives: We aimed to estimate the potential population that requires palliative care, clarify the relationship between this population and the rate of ageing in Japan, and compare these trends with those of other countries. Design: We used the national death registration data and population projections for Japan to estimate the population in need of palliative care using the minimal estimate method developed by Murtagh et al. Linear regression was used to create a model of mortality using sex, age at intervals of 5 years, and each major disease classification. We calculated the future population in need of palliative care until 2040 and compared the ageing data to those of other countries. Setting/participants: All adults in Japan who died from 1980 to 2040 at intervals of 5 years. Results: The number of people who might need palliative care from 2020 to 2040 will also increase linearly from 1 059 000 to 1 405 000. The proportion of Alzheimer's, dementia and senility of the total need for palliative care will increase to 43.4% in 2040. The correlation coefficient between the proportion of the population in need of palliative care and the rate of ageing was 0.24 in developed countries. Conclusion: In Japan, the population requiring palliative care in 2040 will be 1.5 times that in 2015. Palliative care needs to be provided urgently for people with Alzheimer's disease, dementia and senility. The proportion of patients in need of palliative care may not change, although the number of patients requiring such gradually increases in developed countries.

Citation

Ito, M., Aoyama, M., Murtagh, F. E., & Miyashita, M. (2022). Primary palliative care in Japan: needs estimation and projections - national database study with international comparisons. BMJ supportive & palliative care, https://doi.org/10.1136/spcare-2022-003743

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Oct 27, 2022
Online Publication Date Nov 16, 2022
Publication Date Nov 16, 2022
Deposit Date Nov 21, 2022
Publicly Available Date Mar 29, 2024
Journal BMJ Supportive and Palliative Care
Print ISSN 2045-435X
Electronic ISSN 2045-4368
Publisher BMJ Publishing Group
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
DOI https://doi.org/10.1136/spcare-2022-003743
Keywords Medical–Surgical Nursing; Oncology (nursing); General Medicine; Medicine (miscellaneous)
Public URL https://hull-repository.worktribe.com/output/4130728

Files

Accepted manuscript (190 Kb)
PDF

Copyright Statement
©2022 The authors. All rights reserved.




You might also like



Downloadable Citations