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Fuzzy temporal fault tree analysis of dynamic systems

Kabir, Sohag; Papadopoulos, Yiannis; Walker, Martin; Rüde, Erich; Securius, Peter


Sohag Kabir

Martin Walker

Erich Rüde

Peter Securius


Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a powerful technique that is widely used for evaluating system safety and reliability. It can be used to assess the effects of combinations of failures on system behaviour but is unable to capture sequence dependent dynamic behaviour. A number of extensions to fault trees have been proposed to overcome this limitation. Pandora, one such extension, introduces temporal gates and temporal laws to allow dynamic analysis of temporal fault trees (TFTs). It can be easily integrated in model-based design and analysis techniques. The quantitative evaluation of failure probability in Pandora TFTs is performed using exact probabilistic data about component failures. However, exact data can often be difficult to obtain. In this paper, we propose a method that combines expert elicitation and fuzzy set theory with Pandora TFTs to enable dynamic analysis of complex systems with limited or absent exact quantitative data. This gives Pandora the ability to perform quantitative analysis under uncertainty, which increases further its potential utility in the emerging field of model-based design and dependability analysis. The method has been demonstrated by applying it to a fault tolerant fuel distribution system of a ship, and the results are compared with the results obtained by other existing techniques.


Kabir, S., Papadopoulos, Y., Walker, M., Rüde, E., & Securius, P. (2016). Fuzzy temporal fault tree analysis of dynamic systems. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 77, 20-37.

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date May 31, 2016
Online Publication Date Jun 2, 2016
Publication Date Oct 1, 2016
Deposit Date Jun 15, 2016
Publicly Available Date Jun 15, 2016
Journal International journal of approximate reasoning
Print ISSN 0888-613X
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 77
Pages 20-37
Keywords Reliability analysis, Fault tree analysis, Dynamic fault trees, Temporal fault trees, Uncertainty analysis, Fuzzy set theory
Public URL
Publisher URL
Additional Information Authors' accepted manuscript of article published in: International journal of approximate reasoning, 2016, v.77.


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