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A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure

Dawson, Richard J.; Thompson, David; Johns, Daniel; Wood, Ruth; Darch, Geoff; Chapman, Lee; Hughes, Paul N.; Watson, Geoff V.R.; Paulson, Kevin; Bell, Sarah; Gosling, Simon N.; Powrie, William; Hall, Jim W.

Authors

Richard J. Dawson

David Thompson

Daniel Johns

Ruth Wood

Geoff Darch

Lee Chapman

Paul N. Hughes

Geoff V.R. Watson

Kevin Paulson

Sarah Bell

Simon N. Gosling

William Powrie

Jim W. Hall



Abstract

Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socioeconomic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, whilst a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example: 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date Jun 13, 2018
Journal Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A
Print ISSN 1364-503X
Electronic ISSN 1471-2962
Publisher Royal Society, The
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 376
Issue 2121
Article Number 20170298
APA6 Citation Dawson, R. J., Thompson, D., Johns, D., Wood, R., Darch, G., Chapman, L., …Hall, J. W. (2018). A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure. Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences, 376(2121), https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2017.0298
DOI https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2017.0298
Keywords Infrastructure; Climate change; Risk assessment; Interdependence; Systems approach
Publisher URL https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2017.0298
Copyright Statement ©2018 University of Hull This is the author generated preprint of an article published by Philosophical Transactions A.

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Copyright Statement
© 2018 The Authors.

Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.





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