Tailored risk assessment and forecasting in intermittent claudication

Ravindhran, Bharadhwaj; Prosser, Jonathon; Lim, Arthur; Lathan, Ross; Mishra, Bhupesh; Hitchman, Louise; Smith, George E.; Carradice, Daniel; Thakker, Dhaval; Chetter, Ian C.; Pymer, Sean

Abstract

Background: Guidelines recommend cardiovascular risk reduction and supervised exercise therapy as the first line of treatment in intermittent claudication, but implementation challenges and poor patient compliance lead to significant variation in management and therefore outcomes. The development of a precise risk stratification tool is proposed through a machine-learning algorithm that aims to provide personalized outcome predictions for different management strategies. Methods: Feature selection was performed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method. The model was developed using a bootstrapped sample based on patients with intermittent claudication from a vascular centre to predict chronic limb-threatening ischaemia, two or more revascularization procedures, major adverse cardiovascular events, and major adverse limb events. Algorithm performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Calibration curves were generated to assess the consistency between predicted and actual outcomes. Decision curve analysis was employed to evaluate the clinical utility. Validation was performed using a similar dataset. Results: The bootstrapped sample of 10 000 patients was based on 255 patients. The model was validated using a similar sample of 254 patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for risk of progression to chronic limb-threatening ischaemia at 2 years (0.892), risk of progression to chronic limb-threatening ischaemia at 5 years (0.866), likelihood of major adverse cardiovascular events within 5 years (0.836), likelihood of major adverse limb events within 5 years (0.891), and likelihood of two or more revascularization procedures within 5 years (0.896) demonstrated excellent discrimination. Calibration curves demonstrated good consistency between predicted and actual outcomes and decision curve analysis confirmed clinical utility. Logistic regression yielded slightly lower area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for these outcomes compared with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithm (0.728, 0.717, 0.746, 0.756, and 0.733 respectively). External calibration curve and decision curve analysis confirmed the reliability and clinical utility of the model, surpassing traditional logistic regression. Conclusion: The machine-learning algorithm successfully predicts outcomes for patients with intermittent claudication across various initial treatment strategies, offering potential for improved risk stratification and patient outcomes.

Citation

Ravindhran, B., Prosser, J., Lim, A., Lathan, R., Mishra, B., Hitchman, L., Smith, G. E., Carradice, D., Thakker, D., Chetter, I. C., & Pymer, S. (2024). Tailored risk assessment and forecasting in intermittent claudication. BJS Open, 8(1), Article zrad166. https://doi.org/10.1093/bjsopen/zrad166

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Dec 14, 2023
• Online Publication Date: Feb 27, 2024
• Publication Date: Feb 1, 2024
• Deposit Date: Jan 5, 2024
• Publicly Available Date: Feb 2, 2025
• Journal: BJS Open
• Print ISSN: 2474-9842
• Publisher: Wiley
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 8
• Issue: 1
• Article Number: zrad166
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/bjsopen/zrad166
• Keywords: Patient compliance; Heart disease risk factors; Calibration; Exercise therapy; Limb; Intermittent claudication; Risk assessment; Roc curve; Guidelines; Revascularization; Cardiovascular event; Stratification; Patient-focused outcomes; Chronic limb-threate
• Public URL: https://hull-repository.worktribe.com/output/4500487