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Outputs (42)

An options-pricing approach to forecasting the French presidential election (2024)
Journal Article
Fry, J., Hastings, T., & Binner, J. (in press). An options-pricing approach to forecasting the French presidential election. Journal of the Operational Research Society, https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2024.2334339

A subjective probability argument suggests vote-share estimates from polling companies can be interpreted as market prices. The corresponding election constitutes the price at a known future date. This makes an options-pricing approach particularly a... Read More about An options-pricing approach to forecasting the French presidential election.

Faster identification of faster Formula 1 drivers via time-rank duality (2024)
Journal Article
Fry, J., Brighton, T., & Fanzon, S. (2024). Faster identification of faster Formula 1 drivers via time-rank duality. Economics letters, 237, Article 111671. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111671

Two natural ways of modelling Formula 1 race outcomes are a probabilistic approach, based on the exponential distribution, and econometric modelling of the ranks. Both approaches lead to exactly soluble race-winning probabilities. Equating race-winni... Read More about Faster identification of faster Formula 1 drivers via time-rank duality.

Towards a taxonomy for crypto assets (2023)
Journal Article
Fry, J., & Ibiloye, O. (2023). Towards a taxonomy for crypto assets. Cogent Economics and Finance, 11(1), Article 2207266. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2207266

We explore the taxonomy of cryptocurrencies and integrate our analysis with traditional ways of understanding financial assets. We thus classify crypto-currencies using the time series and distributional properties of returns. Cryptocurrencies appear... Read More about Towards a taxonomy for crypto assets.

Revisiting Student Evaluation of Teaching during the pandemic (2023)
Journal Article
Fry, J. (2023). Revisiting Student Evaluation of Teaching during the pandemic. Applied Economics Letters, https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2023.2178623

The pandemic has placed unprecedented pressures upon staff and students alike. Yet performance management of academics including Student Evaluation of Teaching (SET) persists. The American Association of University Professors (AAUP) has intervened on... Read More about Revisiting Student Evaluation of Teaching during the pandemic.

Attention to Authority: The behavioural finance of Covid-19 (2022)
Journal Article
Burke, M., Fry, J., Kemp, S., & Woodhouse, D. (2022). Attention to Authority: The behavioural finance of Covid-19. Finance research letters, 49, Article 103081. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103081

In this paper we investigate the predictability of cryptocurrency returns following increases in Covid-19 cases/deaths. We find that the rate of government intervention moderates the impact that Covid-19 cases/deaths have on cryptocurrency returns. W... Read More about Attention to Authority: The behavioural finance of Covid-19.

Voting intentions on social media and political opinion polls (2021)
Journal Article
Pekar, V., Najafi, H., Binner, J., Swanson, R., Rickard, C., & Fry, J. (in press). Voting intentions on social media and political opinion polls. Government information quarterly, Article 101658. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.giq.2021.101658

Opinion polls play an important role in modern democratic processes: they are known to not only affect the outcomes of elections, but also have a significant influence on government policy after elections. Recent years have seen large discrepancies b... Read More about Voting intentions on social media and political opinion polls.

Automated data processing of bank statements for cash balance forecasting (2021)
Journal Article
Griguta, V., Gerber, L., Slater-Petty, H., Crockett, K., & Fry, J. (2021). Automated data processing of bank statements for cash balance forecasting. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, 284, 49-64. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-80126-7_5

The forecasting of cash inflows and outflows across multiple business operations plays an important role in the financial health of medium and large enterprises. Historically, this function was assigned to specialized treasury departments who project... Read More about Automated data processing of bank statements for cash balance forecasting.

Managing performance expectations in association football (2021)
Journal Article
Fry, J., Serbera, J., & Wilson, R. (2021). Managing performance expectations in association football. Journal of business research, 135, 445-453. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2021.06.052

Motivated by excessive managerial pressure and sackings, together with associated questions over the inefficient use of scarce resources, we explore realistic performance expectations in association football. Our aim is to improve management quality... Read More about Managing performance expectations in association football.

Modelling corporate bank accounts (2021)
Journal Article
Fry, J., Griguta, V., Gerber, L., Slater-Petty, H., & Crockett, K. (2021). Modelling corporate bank accounts. Economics letters, 205, Article 109924. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109924

We discuss the modelling of corporate bank accounts using a proprietary dataset. We thus offer a principled treatment of a genuine industrial problem. The corporate bank accounts in our study constitute spare, irregularly-spaced time series that may... Read More about Modelling corporate bank accounts.

A Variance Gamma model for Rugby Union matches (2020)
Journal Article
Fry, J., Smart, O., Serbera, J., & Klar, B. (2021). A Variance Gamma model for Rugby Union matches. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 17(1), 67-75. https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2019-0088

Amid much recent interest we discuss a Variance Gamma model for Rugby Union matches (applications to other sports are possible). Our model emerges as a special case of the recently introduced Gamma Difference distribution though there is a rich histo... Read More about A Variance Gamma model for Rugby Union matches.

Quantifying the sustainability of Bitcoin and Blockchain (2020)
Journal Article
Fry, J., & Serbera, J. (2020). Quantifying the sustainability of Bitcoin and Blockchain. Journal of Enterprise Information Management, 33(6), 1379-1394. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEIM-06-2018-0134

Purpose The authors develop new quantitative methods to estimate the level of speculation and long-term sustainability of Bitcoin and Blockchain. Design/methodology/approach The authors explore the practical application of speculative bubble mod... Read More about Quantifying the sustainability of Bitcoin and Blockchain.

The valuation of no-negative equity guarantees and equity release mortgages (2019)
Journal Article
Dowd, K., Blake, D., Buckner, D., & Fry, J. (2019). The valuation of no-negative equity guarantees and equity release mortgages. Economics letters, 184, Article 108669. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2019.108669

We outline the valuation process for a No-Negative Equity Guarantee in an Equity Release Mortgage loan and for an Equity Release Mortgage that has such a guarantee. Illustrative valuations are provided based on the Black ’76 put pricing formula and m... Read More about The valuation of no-negative equity guarantees and equity release mortgages.

Would two-stage scoring models alleviate bank exposure to bad debt? (2019)
Journal Article
Abdou, H. A., Mitra, S., Fry, J., & El Amer, A. (2019). Would two-stage scoring models alleviate bank exposure to bad debt?. Expert Systems with Applications, 128, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2019.03.028

The main aim of this paper is to investigate how far applying suitably conceived and designed credit scoring models can properly account for the incidence of default and help improve the decision-making process. Four statistical modelling techniques,... Read More about Would two-stage scoring models alleviate bank exposure to bad debt?.

Takeover deterrents and Cross Partial Ownerships: the case of golden shares (2019)
Journal Article
Serbera, J., & Fry, J. (2019). Takeover deterrents and Cross Partial Ownerships: the case of golden shares. Managerial and decision economics : MDE, 40(3), 243-250. https://doi.org/10.1002/mde.2998

We analyse takeovers in an industry with bilateral capital-linked firms in cross partial ownership (CPO). Before merger, CPO reduces the profitability of involved firms, confirming the “outsider effect.” However, the impact of CPO upon merger profita... Read More about Takeover deterrents and Cross Partial Ownerships: the case of golden shares.

Regional bias when benchmarking services using customer satisfaction scores (2019)
Journal Article
Brint, A., & Fry, J. (2021). Regional bias when benchmarking services using customer satisfaction scores. Total quality management & business excellence, 32(3-4), 344-358. https://doi.org/10.1080/14783363.2019.1568867

Regional monopoly service organisations such as electricity, gas and water distributors, health trusts, public transport, and local government are subject to regulatory oversight. A common element in this is benchmarking an organisation against simil... Read More about Regional bias when benchmarking services using customer satisfaction scores.

How easy is it to understand consumer finance? (2019)
Journal Article
Burke, M., & Fry, J. (2019). How easy is it to understand consumer finance?. Economics letters, 177, 1-4. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2019.01.004

We consider the readability of payday loan websites against conventional lenders. Our findings show that credit card websites are harder to read and contain more complex terminology. Our central contribution is to provide the first known measurement... Read More about How easy is it to understand consumer finance?.

Booms, busts and heavy tails: the story of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets (2018)
Journal Article
Fry, J. (2018). Booms, busts and heavy tails: the story of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets. Economics letters, 171, 225-229. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2018.08.008

We develop bespoke rational bubble models for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies that incorporate both heavy tails and the probability of a complete collapse in asset prices. Empirically, we present robustified evidence of bubbles in Bitcoin and Ethereum.... Read More about Booms, busts and heavy tails: the story of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets.

Speculative bubbles or explosive fundamentals in stock prices? New evidence from SADF and GSADF tests (2018)
Journal Article
El Montasser, G., Naoui, K., & Fry, J. (2018). Speculative bubbles or explosive fundamentals in stock prices? New evidence from SADF and GSADF tests. Journal of Statistics and Management Systems, 21(1), 93-106. https://doi.org/10.1080/09720510.2017.1401799

This paper uses recently developed sequential ADF tests to distinguish between rational speculative bubbles and explosive fundamentals in the US Stock market. The sequential ADF tests are shown to be more sensitive than the conventional ADF test. Res... Read More about Speculative bubbles or explosive fundamentals in stock prices? New evidence from SADF and GSADF tests.

SME's lending and Islamic finance. Is it a "win-win" situation? (2016)
Journal Article
Shaban, M., Duygun, M., & Fry, J. (2016). SME's lending and Islamic finance. Is it a "win-win" situation?. Economic modelling, 55, 1-5. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.01.029

Information asymmetry is a common feature that hinders lending to small and medium enterprises (SMEs). In the last decade, the growth in Islamic banks lending to SMEs was overwhelming to the extent that it prompted practitioners to regard this as a “... Read More about SME's lending and Islamic finance. Is it a "win-win" situation?.

Negative bubbles and shocks in cryptocurrency markets (2016)
Journal Article
Fry, J., & Cheah, E. (2016). Negative bubbles and shocks in cryptocurrency markets. International review of financial analysis, 47, 343-352. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2016.02.008

In this paper we draw upon the close relationship between statistical physics and mathematical finance to develop a suite of models for financial bubbles and crashes. The derived models allow for a probabilistic and statistical formulation of econoph... Read More about Negative bubbles and shocks in cryptocurrency markets.

Explosive bubbles in the US-China exchange rate? Evidence from right-tailed unit root tests (2016)
Journal Article
El Montasser, G., Fry, J., & Apergis, N. (2016). Explosive bubbles in the US-China exchange rate? Evidence from right-tailed unit root tests. China Economic Journal, 9(1), 34-46. https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2015.1125591

In this article we apply novel right-tailed unit root (sup Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) and generalized sup ADF) tests to the China–US exchange rate. The empirical results document that the recent financial crisis in 2008 may be preceded by early w... Read More about Explosive bubbles in the US-China exchange rate? Evidence from right-tailed unit root tests.

Book reviews (2015)
Journal Article
Fry, J. (2015). Book reviews. Market technician : the journal of the Society of Technical Analysts, 79, 8-8

Book reviews (2015)
Journal Article
Fry, J. (2015). Book reviews. Market technician : the journal of the Society of Technical Analysts, 78, 6-7

Elementary modelling and behavioural analysis for emergency evacuations using social media (2015)
Journal Article
Fry, J., & Binner, J. (2016). Elementary modelling and behavioural analysis for emergency evacuations using social media. European journal of operational research, 249(3), 1014-1023. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2015.05.049

Social media usage in evacuations and emergency management represents a rapidly expanding field of study. Our paper thus provides quantitative insight into a serious practical problem. Within this context a behavioural approach is key. We discuss whe... Read More about Elementary modelling and behavioural analysis for emergency evacuations using social media.

Speculative bubbles in Bitcoin markets? An empirical investigation into the fundamental value of Bitcoin (2015)
Journal Article
Cheah, E., & Fry, J. (2015). Speculative bubbles in Bitcoin markets? An empirical investigation into the fundamental value of Bitcoin. Economics letters, 130, 32-36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2015.02.029

Amid its rapidly increasing usage and immense public interest the subject of Bitcoin has raised profound economic and societal issues. In this paper we undertake economic and econometric modelling of Bitcoin prices. As with many asset classes we show... Read More about Speculative bubbles in Bitcoin markets? An empirical investigation into the fundamental value of Bitcoin.

Stochastic modelling for financial bubbles and policy (2015)
Journal Article
Fry, J. (2015). Stochastic modelling for financial bubbles and policy. Cogent Economics and Finance, 3(1), Article 1002152. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2014.1002152

In this paper, we draw upon the close relationship between statistical physics and mathematical finance to develop a suite of models for financial bubbles and crashes. By modifying previous approaches, we are able to derive novel analytical formulae... Read More about Stochastic modelling for financial bubbles and policy.

Quantitative decision-making for the next generation of smarter evacuations (2014)
Book Chapter
Fry, J., Galla, T., & Binner, J. (2014). Quantitative decision-making for the next generation of smarter evacuations. In J. Preston, J. M. Binner, L. Branicki, T. Galla, N. Jones, J. King, …M. Smyrnakis (Eds.), City Evacuations: An Interdisciplinary Approach (63-87). Berlin: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-43877-0_4

In this chapter we discuss the mathematical modelling of the next generation of smarter evacuations. Alongside a burgeoning literature on resilience we formulate a quantitative decision-making framework through which Social Media can be used to deliv... Read More about Quantitative decision-making for the next generation of smarter evacuations.

Multivariate bubbles and antibubbles (2014)
Journal Article
Fry, J. (2014). Multivariate bubbles and antibubbles. European Physical Journal B : Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, 87, Article 174. https://doi.org/10.1140/epjb/e2014-50324-9

In this paper we develop models for multivariate financial bubbles and antibubbles based on statistical physics. In particular, we extend a rich set of univariate models to higher dimensions. Changes in market regime can be explicitly shown to repres... Read More about Multivariate bubbles and antibubbles.

Bubbles, shocks and elementary technical trading strategies (2014)
Journal Article
Fry, J. (2014). Bubbles, shocks and elementary technical trading strategies. European Physical Journal B : Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, 87, Article 1. https://doi.org/10.1140/epjb/e2013-40587-y

In this paper we provide a unifying framework for a set of seemingly disparate models for bubbles, shocks and elementary technical trading strategies in financial markets. Markets operate by balancing intrinsic levels of risk and return. This seeming... Read More about Bubbles, shocks and elementary technical trading strategies.

Exogenous and endogenous crashes as phase transitions in complex financial systems (2012)
Journal Article
Fry, J. (2012). Exogenous and endogenous crashes as phase transitions in complex financial systems. European Physical Journal B : Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, 85, Article 405. https://doi.org/10.1140/epjb/e2012-30234-8

In this paper we provide a unifying framework for a set of seemingly disparate models for exogenous and endogenous shocks in complex financial systems. Markets operate by balancing intrinsic levels of risk and return. This remains true even in the mi... Read More about Exogenous and endogenous crashes as phase transitions in complex financial systems.

Risk management and Basel-Accord-implementation in Pakistan (2012)
Journal Article
Masood, O., & Fry, J. (2012). Risk management and Basel-Accord-implementation in Pakistan. Journal of financial regulation and compliance, 20(3), 293-306. https://doi.org/10.1108/13581981211237981

Purpose Recent events demonstrate that problems in the banking system pose a significant threat to the health of the global economy. Despite several shortcomings the Basel Accord thus emerges as an attempt to protect banking systems. The purpose of... Read More about Risk management and Basel-Accord-implementation in Pakistan.

Gaussian and non-Gaussian models for financial bubbles via econophysics (2011)
Journal Article
Fry, J. (2011). Gaussian and non-Gaussian models for financial bubbles via econophysics. Hyperion International Journal of Econophysics and New Economy, 4(1), 7-22

We develop a rational expectations model of financial bubbles and study how the risk-return interplay is incorporated into prices. We retain the interpretation of the leading Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette model: namely, that the price must raise prior to... Read More about Gaussian and non-Gaussian models for financial bubbles via econophysics.

Stock market volatility and exchange rates in emerging countries: A Markov-state switching approach (2011)
Journal Article
Walid, C., Chaker, A., Masood, O., & Fry, J. (2011). Stock market volatility and exchange rates in emerging countries: A Markov-state switching approach. Emerging markets review, 12(3), 272-292. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2011.04.003

In this paper we employ a Markov-Switching EGARCH model to investigate the dynamic linkage between stock price volatility and exchange rate changes for four emerging countries over the period 1994–2009. Results distinguish between two different regim... Read More about Stock market volatility and exchange rates in emerging countries: A Markov-state switching approach.

Bubbles and crashes in finance: A phase transition from random to deterministic behaviour in prices (2010)
Journal Article
Fry, J. (2010). Bubbles and crashes in finance: A phase transition from random to deterministic behaviour in prices. Journal of Applied Research in Finance, 2(4), 131-137

We develop a rational expectations model of financial bubbles and study ways in which a generic risk-return interplay is incorporated into prices. We retain the interpretation of the leading Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette model, namely, that the price must... Read More about Bubbles and crashes in finance: A phase transition from random to deterministic behaviour in prices.

Multivariate Elliptical Processes (2010)
Journal Article
Bingham, B., Fry, J., & Kiesel, R. (2010). Multivariate Elliptical Processes. Statistica Neerlandica, 64(3), 352-366. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9574.2010.00465.x

We introduce and study multivariate elliptic processes, thus providing a dynamic counterpart to the (static) multivariate elliptic distributions. We pay special attention to the dynamics for Lévy processes and diffusions. We also discuss discrete ver... Read More about Multivariate Elliptical Processes.